Iran-Israel War Escalates After Killing of Supreme Leader; Global Powers Seek De-escalation
Where things stand
Updated May 12, 11:28 AMMore than 3,200 people have been killed in Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed, triggering a global energy shock. A conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran was reportedly agreed, but its implementation is uncertain amid conflicting statements: President Trump claims negotiations are ongoing, while Iran denies direct talks. Iran's leadership has transitioned to Mojtaba Khamenei after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah continues cross-border attacks, and Israel's retaliatory strikes in Lebanon have killed over 773 people. The conflict shows no sign of abating as diplomatic efforts stall.
Open questions
- What is the current status of the conditional ceasefire, and has it been renewed or violated?
- Is the Strait of Hormuz reopening being negotiated, and what progress has been made?
- How many US and allied military casualties have been confirmed beyond the initial counts?
- What is the IAEA's current assessment of Iran's nuclear program, and has access been granted?
- What role is Russia playing in the conflict beyond weapon supplies, and could it mediate?
- Are there any active diplomatic channels between the US and Iran aside from third-party mediation?
- What are the military objectives of both sides now, given the fluid situation?
Key actors
What's corroborated
The US-Israeli attacks cannot be legally justified under international law, according to an expert analysis.
105 sourcesacross 34 articlesMore than 1,800 people have been killed overall, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school.
85 sourcesacross 25 articlesThe IAEA said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes, but lacked access to ensure the program was peaceful.
76 sourcesacross 20 articlesIran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia.
76 sourcesacross 21 articlesAt least three US jets have been shot down in the first two days of fighting, with the US claiming they were shot down by friendly fire.
75 sourcesacross 23 articles
Timeline50
Trump reportedly furious over White House leaks about the war, carrying a folder labeled 'treason' with printed articles.
Netanyahu attempts to persuade Trump to continue the war, as Trump appears reluctant and may seek diplomacy.
Iran's senior military advisor Major General Reza warned Arab and Muslim countries against cooperating with Israel, threatening dire consequences.
2026-05-10: U.S. Navy announces Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine in Gibraltar, a rare public disclosure amid Iran war.
2026-05-08: US imposes sanctions on 10 individuals and companies in China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran's weapons industry, including Shahed drone construction.
German minehunter Fulda departs Kiel for Mediterranean, possible deployment to Strait of Hormuz.
IDF warns residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate one kilometer from homes.
Bahrain revokes citizenship of 69 nationals for allegedly sympathizing with Iran during the war; rights group warns of precedent.