The immediate aftermath saw Iraqi authorities close the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran after an airstrike there killed an Iraqi civilian and critically injured at least five others, according to security sources. The crossing has been closed for both people and trade, Iraqi authorities confirmed. The airstrike also wounded five truck drivers and damaged Iraqi trucks, though Iranian media blamed the U.S. and Israel for the attack, a claim not confirmed by other sources.
This escalation has severely impacted global energy markets, with the hostilities forcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passes. In response to the energy shock, the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from its strategic reserve. Further disruption occurred when a drone hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters, causing a fire.
There will be no negotiations with the United States.
Human cost estimates vary widely, reflecting significant uncertainty about the conflict's severity. More than 1,800 people have been killed in the conflict, including 8 US service members, according to multiple reports, while other sources indicate more than 3000 people have been killed in the war. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school, killing 168 people including around 110 children. However, BBC Verify reported expert video analysis shows a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school, not the school itself. Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 3,220 people killed in Iran as of 20 March, including 1,165 military personnel and 1,398 civilians.
Military developments have been significant on both sides. An Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on 4 March, killing at least 87 people. More than fifty Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed, and the US is well on its way to degrading Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, navy, drones, and control of proxies, according to multiple reports. The US also suffered setbacks, with at least three US jets shot down in the first two days of fighting, and the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense stated several US warplanes crashed over Kuwait.
Troops would be set 'on fire'.
Politically, US President Donald Trump declared the aim of the attack was regime change in Iran. In response, Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured'.
Diplomatic efforts face uncertainty due to conflicting signals from Iranian officials. The war began during indirect nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran received a 15-point proposal from the US with 'excessive, unrealistic and irrational' demands. According to jacobin.com, Ali Larijani described there being no negotiations with the United States. Meanwhile, Pakistan hosted a meeting of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt to open direct US-Iran talks, and Press TV reported Iran drafted a five-point proposal calling for a halt to killing officials, guarantees against future attacks, reparations, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran received a 15-point proposal from the US with 'excessive, unrealistic and irrational' demands.
Regional strikes have expanded the conflict's geography. Iran struck a water and electrical plant in Kuwait and an oil refinery in Israel. Iran also launched ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia military base on the Chagos Islands. Additionally, Iranian ballistic missiles struck Peshmerga positions in Erbil, killing six fighters and wounding about 30.
External involvement includes Russia providing military support, with Iran receiving MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia. The International Atomic Energy Agency said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes.
Threats and accusations continue to escalate. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's energy resources and infrastructure, including desalination plants, if a deal is not reached. According to www.1news.co.nz, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf described troops would be set 'on fire'. The airstrike on the Shalamcheh border crossing remains disputed, with Iranian media blaming the U.S. and Israel but other sources not confirming responsibility.
Verification efforts and unresolved questions persist. BBC Verify's analysis of the school strike suggests a different target than claimed, while Israeli authorities said 15 civilians were killed by missile fire in Israel as of 19 March. Key unknowns include the exact number of casualties in the conflict, given the widely varying reports, and the specific terms of the US 15-point proposal to Iran and Iran's five-point proposal. The extent of damage to Iran's military capabilities, such as the number of naval vessels destroyed, also remains unclear, as does the current status of negotiations between the US and Iran, given conflicting statements from Iranian officials.