The United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to multiple sources. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US-allied targets in the Gulf region. This conflict caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil supply, and has killed more than 1,800 people, including US service members and students, as reported by research.
US President Donald Trump declared the aim was regime change in Iran, according to multiple reports. The US and Israeli attacks targeted Iranian military sites, leadership, and nuclear program facilities, according to multiple reports. Mojtaba Khamenei was named as successor to Ali Khamenei, and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured', according to multiple reports.
Civilian casualties have sparked controversy, with a US Tomahawk missile hitting a military base near a girls' school in Iran, killing civilians including children, according to BBC Verify. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school, killing 168 people including children. The US said it was investigating the school incident, while Israel said it was 'not aware' of any military operations in the area, according to multiple reports.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes, according to multiple reports. Legal experts have criticized the attacks as illegal under international law, violating the UN Charter, according to multiple reports.
The conflict escalated into a regional war, involving Lebanon and Hezbollah, according to multiple reports. An Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people, research indicates.
President Trump issued contradictory statements on US military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict, according to sources. The US and Israel offered conflicting explanations for starting the war, such as pre-empting threats, destroying Iran's capabilities, or achieving regime change, according to multiple reports. This war followed a US military buildup in the region, the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, as reported by research.
The war has caused significant economic damage to the Middle East, with GDP losses estimated at 3.7-6.0% and up to 4 million jobs lost, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Energy prices have surged in the six weeks since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, major media reports.
More than 32 million people worldwide could be plunged into poverty by the economic fallout from the Iran war, according to major media. Developing countries are expected to be hit hardest by the economic fallout from the Iran war, major media indicates. The UNDP issued a report amid doubts over a fragile ceasefire, and said the world is facing a 'triple shock' involving energy, food, and weaker economic growth, according to major media. The conflict is reversing gains in international development, with the impact expected to be felt unevenly across regions, according to the UNDP. With a knock-on impact on fertiliser supplies and global shipping, experts warn that a 'food security timebomb' has been set for the developing world, major media reports.
The UNDP published its report as world leaders gather in Washington for the IMF’s spring meetings, according to major media. The UNDP said a global response was required to support countries hardest hit by the economic fallout, according to major media. According to the UNDP, targeted and temporary cash transfers were needed to protect the most vulnerable households in developing nations, at a cost of about $6bn to neutralise the shocks for those falling below the poverty line, according to major media. Second-best interventions could include temporary subsidies or vouchers for electricity or cooking gas, according to major media. The UNDP warned against blanket subsidies because they would unnecessarily support wealthier households, and would be financially unsustainable over time, according to major media.
The UNDP set out three scenarios for the war, major media reports. In the worst-case scenario – involving six weeks of major disruption to oil and gas production and eight months of lingering higher costs – as many as 32.5 million people globally would fall into poverty, according to major media. The report used the upper-middle-income poverty line, an international standard calculated by the World Bank, which is defined as income below $8.30 per person per day, according to major media. Half of the global poverty increase would be concentrated in the group of 3, though details remain unclear, according to major media.
Key unknowns persist, including the current status of the ceasefire and prospects for a durable peace, as well as the total number of people killed or injured across all countries involved. The specific evidence, if any, that the US and Israel had to justify the attack as pre-emptive self-defense has not been publicly detailed. Additionally, the identities and roles of the 'experts' warning about the 'food security timebomb' are unspecified, and the 'group of 3' where half of the global poverty increase is concentrated requires clarification.