The United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, unleashing Operation Epic Fury, according to multiple reports. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Israel and U.S. military facilities in the Gulf region, research indicates. This exchange marked a dramatic escalation in long-standing tensions, immediately drawing in other actors and threatening broader instability.
The human cost has been severe, with more than 1,800 people killed in the conflict, including 8 U.S. service members, according to research. At least 175 students were killed by a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, multiple reports state. The war has involved multiple strikes on civilian sites and infrastructure by all sides, causing hundreds of deaths and displacement, with U.S. and Israeli attacks striking schools, medical facilities, residential areas, and a water desalination plant in Iran, research confirms.
U.S. President Donald Trump declared the aim was regime change in Iran. However, Trump has issued conflicting statements on U.S. military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict, with officials offering various explanations including pre-empting threats, destroying military capabilities, and securing resources. An expert analysis concludes the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran cannot be legally justified under international law, highlighting a gap in official U.S. legal reasoning for the war.
The conflict quickly expanded regionally, with Iran launching strikes on civilian infrastructure in multiple countries, including Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, and Oman, according to research. Simultaneously, the confrontation escalated into the 2026 Lebanon war between Hezbollah and Israel, multiple reports indicate. These developments underscored the rapid spillover of violence beyond the initial combatants, straining diplomatic channels and humanitarian responses.
Economically, the hostilities forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil supply, research shows. In response to the energy shock, the International Energy Agency released four hundred million barrels from its strategic reserve, according to multiple reports. The closure of this critical chokepoint triggered immediate market disruptions, with analysts warning of prolonged volatility if the situation persists.
In a significant nuclear context, the International Atomic Energy Agency said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes. This assessment complicates justifications for the attacks based on pre-emptive action against an imminent nuclear threat. The agency's findings may influence ongoing diplomatic negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
Military tactics have raised additional concerns, as the Pentagon has removed safeguards to prevent civilian harm and used AI models in targeting, raising legal concerns, according to research. The specific safeguards removed and the AI models used remain unclear, but experts warn these changes could increase collateral damage and challenge compliance with international humanitarian law. This shift in operational protocols has drawn scrutiny from human rights organizations and legal analysts.
Diplomatically, Pakistan has emerged as an unlikely diplomatic broker between Iran and the U.S., according to major media reports. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, holds significant authority and has strong relationships with Iran, Gulf nations, and the U.S., aiding mediation, multiple sources indicate. Munir is widely seen as a key driving force in Pakistan's diplomatic efforts, major media reports note.
Munir's mediation efforts have been direct and high-level. Pakistan’s army chief was one of the few able to get the U.S. and Iranian leadership on the phone, passing along messages as a trusted intermediary to both sides, major media reports state. Munir’s phone calls led the frantic international efforts last week, which resulted in a last-minute ceasefire agreement after Trump’s threat that Iran’s civilisation would be destroyed if they did not agree to a deal, major media reports indicate.
Ceasefire developments show an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, according to regional officials speaking anonymously. Mediators are pushing for a compromise on Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages, research indicates. However, internal Iranian opposition could jeopardize the agreement.
The U.S. has employed pressure tactics alongside diplomacy, with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and warnings of new economic sanctions, according to research. U.S. president Donald Trump quickly lashed out, imposing a naval blockade on the strait of Hormuz that risked escalating the war, major media reports state.
Talks logistics are taking shape, as the White House said further talks would likely take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. This confirmation provides a potential venue for continued negotiations, though the specific terms of any new proposal remain unclear. The choice of Islamabad reflects Pakistan's central role as mediator and its geopolitical positioning between the adversaries.
In Iranian leadership, Tehran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him as Supreme Leader, according to research. This transition occurred amid the conflict, potentially influencing Iran's strategic decisions and internal cohesion. The appointment of a familial successor could signal continuity in Iran's revolutionary ideology while introducing new dynamics in its foreign policy approach.
Pakistan's diplomatic structure reveals the army's dominance, as it is widely acknowledged that the negotiations have been coordinated from Rawalpindi, the seat of the army, rather than Islamabad, the seat of the parliament, major media reports state. Analysts have emphasised that it is not unusual for Pakistan’s army chief – an unelected, yet overwhelmingly powerful position – to shape the country’s foreign policy and to be the face of foreign engagements, even when civilian governments are supposedly in charge, according to major media reports.
Recent diplomatic movements saw Munir rush to Tehran in what many saw as a last-ditch attempt to revive Pakistan’s efforts to mediate an end to the war between the U.S. and Iran, major media reports state. Four days earlier, the U.S. vice-president, JD Vance, left Islamabad, after more than 21 hours of talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to broker a deal, according to major media reports. On Wednesday night, the army chief arrived in Tehran with a new proposal from Washington of a framework for a fresh round of talks in Islamabad next week, major media reports indicate. Munir was warmly greeted by Iran’s foreign minister and chief negotiator upon arrival and was dressed in full army fatigues, major media reports state.
Key unknowns persist in the conflict, including what specific terms are included in the new proposal from Washington that Munir brought to Tehran. The current status of the ceasefire agreement and whether it will be extended remains uncertain given internal Iranian opposition. Evidence to justify the attack as pre-emptive, beyond the stated aim of regime change, has not been publicly detailed by the U.S. or Israel. Total casualty figures, including civilians and military personnel from all sides, are still being assessed, and the specific safeguards removed by the Pentagon in targeting and the AI models used, raising legal concerns, have not been disclosed.