Iran-Israel War Escalates After Killing of Supreme Leader; Global Powers Seek De-escalation
Where things stand
Updated May 11, 11:06 PMCasualties from the Iran-Israel war stand at over 3,200 dead in Iran and at least 28 in Israel, with thousands more across the region. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, sustaining a global energy shock, and the International Energy Agency has released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Iran continues to receive military support from Russia, including MiG-29 and Su-35 fighter jets. Hezbollah has escalated its involvement by firing rockets into Israel, prompting intensified Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. Diplomatic efforts remain uncertain, with conflicting statements from the US and Iran on negotiations.
Open questions
- What is the current status of Iran's supreme leader and the succession process?Open since March 8, 2026
- What are the exact military and civilian casualty figures for all parties involved, including US forces?
- Is the Strait of Hormuz closure being actively contested, and what are the prospects for reopening?Open since March 20, 2026
- What is the state of any ceasefire or peace negotiations between the US and Iran?Open since March 24, 2026
- What is the extent of Iranian military capabilities after significant leadership losses and reported Russian support?Open since February 28, 2026
- How many civilians were killed in the US-Israeli attack on an Iranian elementary school, and what is the outcome of investigations?Open since February 28, 2026
Key actors
What's corroborated
The US-Israeli attacks cannot be legally justified under international law, according to an expert analysis.
105 sourcesacross 34 articlesMore than 1,800 people have been killed overall, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school.
85 sourcesacross 25 articlesThe IAEA said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes, but lacked access to ensure the program was peaceful.
76 sourcesacross 20 articlesIran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia.
76 sourcesacross 21 articlesAt least three US jets have been shot down in the first two days of fighting, with the US claiming they were shot down by friendly fire.
75 sourcesacross 23 articles
Timeline50
Iran's senior military advisor Major General Reza warned Arab and Muslim countries against cooperating with Israel, threatening dire consequences.
2026-05-10: U.S. Navy announces Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine in Gibraltar, a rare public disclosure amid Iran war.
2026-05-08: US imposes sanctions on 10 individuals and companies in China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran's weapons industry, including Shahed drone construction.
German minehunter Fulda departs Kiel for Mediterranean, possible deployment to Strait of Hormuz.
IDF warns residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate one kilometer from homes.
Bahrain revokes citizenship of 69 nationals for allegedly sympathizing with Iran during the war; rights group warns of precedent.