The US and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to research from five sources. These strikes targeted Iran's missile infrastructure, military sites, leadership, nuclear program sites, and oil and gas sites like Kharg Island and South Pars, based on research from two sources. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases, and US-allied Gulf states, as reported by research from five sources, marking a significant escalation in hostilities.
Following the attacks, Mojtaba Khamenei was named as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor on March 8, according to research from two sources. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured', but Iran denied this claim, stating he was unharmed. This dispute over the successor's condition adds uncertainty to Iran's leadership transition amid the ongoing conflict.
Other high-ranking Iranian officials killed in the attacks include Ali Larijani, Esmail Khatib, and Gholamreza Soleimani, according to research from nine sources. Their deaths represent a significant blow to Iran's political and military establishment, potentially destabilizing the country's governance structures. The loss of these figures could impact Iran's ability to coordinate its war efforts and internal security.
Civilian casualties have been substantial, with Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reporting 3,220 people killed in Iran as of March 20, including 1,165 military personnel, 1,398 civilians (at least 210 children), and 657 unclassified. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school near an IRGC base on February 28, killing 168 people including around 110 children. The US said it was investigating the school incident, while Israel said it was 'not aware' of any military operations in the area. BBC Verify reported expert video analysis shows a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school, suggesting the strike may have been misdirected or caused collateral damage.
Additional military engagements have resulted in further losses, with an Iranian warship sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people, according to research from nine sources. Israeli authorities said 15 civilians were killed by Iranian missile fire as of March 19. More than 1,800 people have been killed so far overall, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school, based on research from nine sources, highlighting the widespread human cost of the conflict.
Iran's attacks forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to soar, according to research from three sources. The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from its strategic reserve due to the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, as reported by research from nine sources. This economic impact has global repercussions, threatening energy security and increasing inflationary pressures worldwide.
Hezbollah entered the war on March 2 by firing rockets from north of the Litani River at an Israeli military base near Haifa, according to research from nine sources. Sources close to Hezbollah indicated that Hezbollah's political leadership may have been unaware of the rocket attack in advance, with coordination possibly done directly between the IRGC Quds Force and Hezbollah's armed element. Hezbollah sources say the group is now engaged in what it calls the 'last war' with Israel, a long and painful confrontation, signaling a deepening of the conflict.
the Iran war is 'beyond the halfway point' but did not want to put a schedule on it.
Background on the 2024 Lebanon war shows that Israeli forces entered Lebanon on October 1 to destroy Hezbollah's ability to threaten northern Israel, successfully disrupting many capabilities, based on research from nine sources. A war between Israel and Hezbollah took place in Southern Lebanon in 2024, with a ceasefire on November 27 after Israel invaded on October 1, according to research from two sources. Israel reported 56 soldiers and 2,762 Hezbollah militants killed in the 2024 Lebanon invasion, indicating the scale of previous hostilities.
Hezbollah's military capabilities and limitations are evident, as the group has failed to effectively execute any major military campaign at scale, relying on rocket and mortar harassment rather than sophisticated tactics, according to research from nine sources. Hezbollah has around 95,000 fighters available after losing about 5,000 in the 2024 war, based on research from nine sources. The group has a monthly budget of $50 million, mainly from Iran, and is replenishing rocket and drone stockpiles through smuggling and local manufacturing, as reported by research from nine sources. Hezbollah launched 60 drones and rockets on March 2, more than doubling by March 4, and may have around 25,000 rockets and missiles ready, according to research from nine sources.
Regarding Hezbollah's resurgence narrative, major media reports that Hezbollah had been counted out by everyone, but is now back and preparing for 'the last battle'. This narrative contrasts with assessments of its military effectiveness, where Hezbollah has failed to execute major campaigns but is engaged in a long confrontation, affecting perceptions of its threat level and operational capabilities in the ongoing war.
The US-Israeli attacks on Iran are illegal under international law, according to legal experts, as Iran had not attacked the US first. Trump administration officials have offered various and conflicting explanations for starting the war, such as regime change, destroying Iran's missile capabilities, or preventing nuclear weapons, based on research from two sources. These justifications raise questions about the conflict's legality and strategic coherence.
On nuclear program context, the IAEA said it did not have needed access to ensure Iran's nuclear program was exclusively peaceful, but there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program at the time of the strikes. This assessment suggests that the strikes may have been preemptive based on potential rather than imminent threats, complicating the rationale for military action.
Iran's diplomatic stance remains firm, with the country stating that US demands are 'unrealistic, illogical and excessive'. Iran entered its 32nd day of an internet blackout, with only senior officials having access, according to research from nine sources, which hampers information flow and could obscure the full extent of the humanitarian crisis.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a widening of Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon, where three UN peacekeepers and four Israeli soldiers were killed this week. This expansion indicates that the conflict is spreading beyond Iran, with Lebanon becoming a key battleground in the regional war.
Several unknowns persist in this conflict, including the specific military objectives and endgame for the US and Israel, as well as the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Iran and Lebanon beyond reported figures. The current status of peace negotiations between the US and Iran and the likelihood of a ceasefire remain unclear, along with the internal political situation in Iran following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei. These uncertainties could influence the conflict's duration and outcome, with implications for regional stability.