Sir Simon Gass, who served as the UK government's representative in Iran between 2009 and 2011, told HuffPost UK that any expectation that military action against Iran would lead to regime change was a triumph of optimism over realism. According to HuffPost UK, Gass described Trump's claim that regime change had occurred because the previous supreme leader was killed as problematic, noting that the position of hardliners, particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, may have been strengthened. He added that the IRGC are now calling the shots in Iran, and decisions are being taken by people who are arguably more hardline than before the fighting started.
The US and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in what analysts describe as a 'decapitation' strike. This marked a significant escalation from the 12-Day War in June 2025, which was the first major test between Israel and Iran but did not target top leadership. The 2026 war involved a deliberate strategy to eliminate Iran's senior figures, fundamentally altering the country's power structure.
Any expectation that military action against Iran would have led to regime change was a triumph of optimism over realism.
Contradictory accounts have emerged regarding US involvement in Khamenei's killing. According to a Pentagon official, the US opposed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei, and the official stated that Israel, not the US, was responsible for the strike. However, President Trump claimed the US worked closely with Israel to track and kill Khamenei, and anonymous sources cited by The New York Times and CBS said the CIA shared Khamenei's location data with Israel. This contradiction raises questions about the true extent of US involvement in the decapitation strike.
The war began during nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, according to research from nine sources. Former UK ambassador to Iran Sir Richard Dalton said the war was launched on the basis of a lie about Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA stated there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program at the time of the strikes, undermining the stated justification for the attack.
President Trump has occasionally claimed that there has been regime change because the previous supreme leader was killed and a swathe of other leaders were also killed during the military campaign.
Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and US-allied countries. The US and Israel have struck more than 5,000 targets in Iran, according to Washington and Israel. Iran says US and Israeli forces have bombed nearly 10,000 civilian sites and killed more than 1,300 civilians, though the actual number of civilian casualties remains unverified.
Trump once again extended the ceasefire in the war as he desperately tries to reach a deal with Iran to end the conflict, according to major media reports. The conflict has caused surges in global oil prices and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global markets. The terms of the ceasefire extension and prospects for a permanent deal remain unclear.
The problem with that, apart from the fact that it’s not true, is that what may have happened in Tehran is that the position of the hardliners, and particularly the [Iranian] military capability, has actually been strengthened in all of this.
Former UK Prime Minister John Major condemned the war as illegal and criticized Trump's handling, according to HuffPost UK. Sir Simon Gass's comments add to the criticism from former UK officials, questioning the effectiveness and legality of the military campaign.
Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the new supreme leader after Ali Khamenei's death, according to research. The exact nature of the power shift and the influence of the IRGC in the new leadership structure remain uncertain. The status of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran is also unclear, as is the long-term impact of the conflict on Iran's political landscape.
And I am in no doubt that at the moment, it is the [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] who are calling the shots.
The decisions in Iran are now being taken by people who are arguably more hardline, even than the regime was before the fighting started.
President Trump claimed the US worked closely with Israel to track and kill Khamenei.
Former UK PM John Major condemned the war as illegal and criticized Trump's handling.