Iran-Israel War Escalates After Killing of Supreme Leader; Global Powers Seek De-escalation
Where things stand
Updated May 14, 12:02 AMThe Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, sustaining a global energy shock that prompted the IEA to release 400 million barrels of oil. A conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran was agreed but its status is unclear, with President Trump claiming talks are ongoing and Iran denying direct negotiations. Iran has received advanced Russian fighter jets and attack helicopters, while the US plans a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The human toll continues to mount, with more than 3,200 dead in Iran, at least 28 in Israel, and over 773 in Lebanon. The Assembly of Experts works to select a permanent successor to the late Ali Khamenei, as Mojtaba Khamenei serves as acting supreme leader.
Open questions
- What are the specific conditions of the conditional ceasefire?
- Will the planned US naval blockade escalate the conflict further?
- Is Iran permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or does it retain the ability to close it again?
- What is the health status of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following reports of injury?
- How is the international community responding to the legality of the initial US-Israeli strikes?
- What role are countries like China and Norway playing in mediation efforts?
Key actors
What's corroborated
The US-Israeli attacks cannot be legally justified under international law, according to an expert analysis.
105 sourcesacross 34 articlesMore than 1,800 people have been killed overall, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school.
85 sourcesacross 25 articlesThe IAEA said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes, but lacked access to ensure the program was peaceful.
76 sourcesacross 20 articlesIran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia.
76 sourcesacross 21 articlesAt least three US jets have been shot down in the first two days of fighting, with the US claiming they were shot down by friendly fire.
75 sourcesacross 23 articles
Timeline50
Hoarding of essential goods exacerbates economic damage from the war, per Financial Times.
2026-05-13: Iran restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump traveled to China for talks on ending the war.
UK sending drones, aircraft, and warships to Strait of Hormuz, per Sky News.
Trump reportedly furious over White House leaks about the war, carrying a folder labeled 'treason' with printed articles.
Netanyahu attempts to persuade Trump to continue the war, as Trump appears reluctant and may seek diplomacy.
2026-05-12: Qatar's PM warns Iran against weaponizing Strait of Hormuz to pressure Gulf countries, speaking alongside Turkish FM in Doha.
Iran's senior military advisor Major General Reza warned Arab and Muslim countries against cooperating with Israel, threatening dire consequences.
2026-05-10: U.S. Navy announces Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine in Gibraltar, a rare public disclosure amid Iran war.
2026-05-08: US imposes sanctions on 10 individuals and companies in China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran's weapons industry, including Shahed drone construction.
German minehunter Fulda departs Kiel for Mediterranean, possible deployment to Strait of Hormuz.
IDF warns residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate one kilometer from homes.
Bahrain revokes citizenship of 69 nationals for allegedly sympathizing with Iran during the war; rights group warns of precedent.