Iran-Israel War Escalates After Killing of Supreme Leader; Global Powers Seek De-escalation
Where things stand
Updated May 14, 01:47 PMMore than 1,800 people have been killed in the conflict, with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a global energy shock and an IEA release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. A conditional two-week ceasefire was agreed, but Iran denies direct negotiations, and President Trump has issued conflicting statements on U.S. objectives. Iran has received Russian fighter jets and attack helicopters, and its army chief warned of a 'decisive' response. The UN Security Council condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states. Diplomatic efforts involve China, Pakistan, and Norway.
Open questions
- Will the conditional ceasefire hold beyond two weeks?
- Are there ongoing direct negotiations between the US and Iran, and if so, through which intermediaries?
- Who will permanently succeed Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader?
- What is the fate of the seized vessel Hui Chuan and its crew?
- How has Iran’s receipt of Russian aircraft affected the military balance?
- What is the current total death toll, and have recent military operations added to it?
Key actors
What's corroborated
The US-Israeli attacks cannot be legally justified under international law, according to an expert analysis.
105 sourcesacross 34 articlesMore than 1,800 people have been killed overall, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school.
85 sourcesacross 25 articlesThe IAEA said there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program in Iran at the time of the strikes, but lacked access to ensure the program was peaceful.
76 sourcesacross 20 articlesIran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia.
76 sourcesacross 21 articlesAt least three US jets have been shot down in the first two days of fighting, with the US claiming they were shot down by friendly fire.
75 sourcesacross 23 articles
Timeline50
2026-05-13: Trump visits China to seek help in ending the Iran war, per BBC News.
Hoarding of essential goods exacerbates economic damage from the war, per Financial Times.
2026-05-13: China and Iran held a high-level meeting in Beijing; U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated it is in China's interest for Iran to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
2026-05-13: Iran restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump traveled to China for talks on ending the war.
UK sending drones, aircraft, and warships to Strait of Hormuz, per Sky News.
Trump reportedly furious over White House leaks about the war, carrying a folder labeled 'treason' with printed articles.
Netanyahu attempts to persuade Trump to continue the war, as Trump appears reluctant and may seek diplomacy.
2026-05-12: Qatar's PM warns Iran against weaponizing Strait of Hormuz to pressure Gulf countries, speaking alongside Turkish FM in Doha.
Iran's senior military advisor Major General Reza warned Arab and Muslim countries against cooperating with Israel, threatening dire consequences.
2026-05-10: U.S. Navy announces Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine in Gibraltar, a rare public disclosure amid Iran war.
2026-05-08: US imposes sanctions on 10 individuals and companies in China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran's weapons industry, including Shahed drone construction.
German minehunter Fulda departs Kiel for Mediterranean, possible deployment to Strait of Hormuz.
IDF warns residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate one kilometer from homes.
Bahrain revokes citizenship of 69 nationals for allegedly sympathizing with Iran during the war; rights group warns of precedent.