The Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a major transit route for one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan natural gas terminal, damaging LNG export capacity for years. Multiple reports indicate Brent crude hit $105.32 a barrel.
Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has unleashed strikes against energy infrastructure across several Gulf nations, shutting down Qatar's LNG production, Israel's gas fields, Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, and Iraqi output, according to multiple reports. Iranian media reported that Tehran will fire on any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This campaign has plunged regional energy markets into turmoil, with the exact status of the conflict remaining unclear as some describe a 12-day war that has ended while others point to ongoing strikes.
The majority of Iran's highly enriched uranium is likely still at the Isfahan nuclear complex.
Crude carriers U-turned in the Atlantic, and nearly a dozen LNG tankers shifted from Europe to Asia as vessels fled the Strait of Hormuz after insurers withdrew coverage. President Trump projected that U.S. and Israeli air attacks would last four to five weeks, with the U.S. exploring insurance support for oil tankers. Standard Chartered analysts noted that U.S.-operated energy assets in Iraq are exposed because they rely heavily on transit through the strait.
Oil markets saw sharp gains on Tuesday, with Brent crude climbing to $82.44 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate to $75.66, according to market data. Exact oil price trajectories remain uncertain amid the volatility. Andrew Lipow, speaking to virginiabusiness.com, described Iran's infrastructure attacks as capable of pushing oil prices up by $10, sending Brent to $90 and beyond. Standard Chartered also warned that Iran's broader retaliation has created regional flashpoints posing a real risk to oil supply.
Iran's attacks on infrastructure could boost oil prices by $10, with Brent going to $90 and up.
The International Energy Agency described the supply disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market, with a loss of 20 million barrels per day. According to regional reports, Iraq slashed crude production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and cuts may double as storage runs out. In China, supply disruptions have forced some refineries to shut or advance maintenance plans, analysts said.
British wholesale gas prices climbed to 171 pence per therm, their highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to market reports, which note that the UK imports about 70% of its gas, making it highly vulnerable to price spikes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the war is costing the EU almost 500 million euros daily and a jet fuel shortage could emerge within weeks.
Ali Larijani now plays a decisive role in policymaking.
The petrochemical supply chain, which underpins over 6,000 consumer products, is buckling, pushing up costs for toys, packaging and fertilizers, industry monitors warned. Market data show fertilizer prices have soared, with urea up 50% and ammonia 20%, hitting Brazil hard as it imports 85% of its supply. UK industry sources reported that a chemicals plant may close if high prices persist, and British Steel's Scunthorpe plant is losing £1.3 million per day.
The crisis has triggered a rush to nuclear power, with South Korea boosting output, Taiwan considering reactor restarts, and Japan signing new nuclear deals, according to multiple international reports. India and Indonesia said they are urgently seeking alternative energy supplies as the strait closure bites. Pakistan's weekly oil import bill surged about 167% to $800 million, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reported.
The Supreme National Security Council's view is central in indirect negotiations with the United States, and negotiations are taken word by word from the council.
The war's environmental toll is mounting, with over 400 environmentally damaging incidents recorded, and acid rain from burning oil infrastructure drifting near Tehran, environmental agencies said. In the United States, a massive explosion rocked the Valero Port Arthur refinery, according to emergency services. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike killed a Lebanese army soldier and his brother, raising the number of Lebanese soldiers killed since March 2 to 20, Lebanese officials confirmed. The full human toll of the conflict remains unknown.
In a dramatic shift, the United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC on May 1, according to an official announcement. Saudi Aramco is attempting to reroute some crude exports to the Red Sea to bypass the closed strait, industry sources said. U.S. gasoline futures climbed about 4% to $2.47 a gallon, their highest level since July 2024, according to market data.
fictional scenario
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi assessed that the majority of Iran's highly enriched uranium is likely still at the Isfahan nuclear complex. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran now has the capability to launch ballistic missiles deep into Europe. The New York Times, citing Iranian officials, reported that Tehran has prepared contingency plans for war with the United States or Israel, including scenarios where senior leaders could be killed.
The Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon arrived in the eastern Mediterranean as Western forces bolstered their presence, the UK Ministry of Defence said. The United States has also expanded its military footprint in the region, according to defense officials. In London, hundreds gathered outside the U.S. embassy to protest the conflict, according to local reports.
a diverse basket of strategic lies
President Trump said Iran is in a state of collapse, yet diplomatic sources say indirect talks between Washington and Tehran continue. Trump has repeatedly warned that military strikes remain an option if diplomacy fails, keeping pressure on Iran.
Iranian contingency plans, according to the New York Times, name Ali Larijani, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Hassan Rouhani to ensure leadership continuity. The New York Times suggested that Larijani's expanding role has diminished the visible influence of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iranian outlet Eghtesad24 portrayed Larijani as a 'crisis manager' overseeing nuclear diplomacy, regional strategy, and wartime planning.
a US-Israeli fabrication
Le Figaro published an account alleging that former president Hassan Rouhani led an internal effort to sideline Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from crisis management during recent protests. Le Figaro reported that the plot involved ex-foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Qom clerics, and elements linked to the Revolutionary Guards, but failed partly because Larijani did not support it. Rouhani's office rejected the report as a US-Israeli fabrication.
Ali Larijani has not publicly addressed either report, according to Iranian media sources. Following a 12-day war with Israel, Supreme Leader Khamenei appointed Larijani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iranian state media reported. Iranian media widely republished the foreign reports but mostly avoided deep analysis, monitors said.
The conservative newspaper Farhikhtegan dismissed the Le Figaro report as a 'fictional scenario' and a 'strategic lie.' According to www.iranintl.com, MP Salar Velayatmadar described Larijani as playing a decisive role in policymaking. Velayatmadar also said that the Supreme National Security Council's view is central in indirect negotiations with the United States, with negotiations taken word by word from the council.