The Strait of Hormuz has been closed or restricted by Iran, affecting global oil and fertilizer trade. About 20% to 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade moves through the strait. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and nearly one-fifth of global LNG deliveries are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily, research from multiple sources indicates. The region produces about 30% of global fertilizer, which is also not moving due to the closure.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual standstill as tankers face drone and missile attacks and have had insurance withdrawn. At least 21 vessels have been hit or targeted, or have reported attacks, since the start of the war, the AFP news agency reports. In a recent incident, a drone struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters on Tuesday morning, causing a fire that was extinguished but raising concerns about a potential oil spill, as reported by two major media sources.
The war with Iran has caused crude oil prices to rise, topping $100 per barrel, according to research from two sources. White House officials are bracing for oil prices to surge past $150 a barrel as the Iran war stretches into its second month and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, multiple major media outlets report. A potential spike to $200 a barrel hasn't been ruled out, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico. Eurasia Group estimates there is a 55 percent chance the war will drag on through May and oil prices could reach above $150 a barrel. Macquarie said oil could surpass $200 a barrel if the conflict continues into June. Paolo Zanghieri expects a substantial increase in oil prices if the crisis persists, with closure of the Strait of Hormuz potentially driving prices above $100 per barrel.
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel but later plunged around 5% to around $86 per barrel after comments from Trump, according to research from four sources. Brent crude reached a peak of $82.37 per barrel, and US crude reached $75.33 per barrel after the escalation, other research indicates. Before the US and Israel attack on Iran on 28 February, the price of oil hovered around $70 a barrel, multiple major media sources report. The average cost of a barrel of crude has hovered around $100 in recent weeks, seen as a new baseline by the Trump administration, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico.
Officials are urgently evaluating options to tame soaring oil prices, including exercising emergency powers and authorities for national defense reasons to address supply chain disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, an industry insider told the outlet. The US Department of Energy published details of its 172 million barrel contribution to the IEA's largest ever emergency stockpile release, totalling 400 million barrels, framed as an 'exchange' or loan to be returned with additional barrels as a premium, according to two major media reports. The IEA clarified that reserves from Asia and Oceania will be available immediately, while stocks from Europe and the Americas will only arrive at the end of March. OPEC+ decided to expand supply by 206,000 barrels per day, research from four sources indicates.
Trump appealed to China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others to join a naval escort mission through the Strait of Hormuz, multiple major media reports confirm. The White House plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to join the escort mission, but they are still deliberating whether it would start before or after the war ends, according to US officials who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss extending the bloc's Aspides naval mission to the strait, but key figures like German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul voiced scepticism, as reported by two major media sources.
Trump's latest intervention pushed back the 48-hour deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz or see its power plants 'obliterated' to Friday after citing 'productive' peace talks, according to multiple major media reports. Iran has rejected any notion of peace talks, with state media claiming Trump backed down in the face of threats, though later the Iranian foreign ministry said it had 'received points from the US through mediators and they are being reviewed', multiple major media outlets report. US strikes targeted Iran's primary oil export hub, Kharg Island, on Friday after markets closed, focusing on military infrastructure, two major media sources confirm. Roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports are shipped from Kharg Island, according to JPMorgan. Israel hit Iranian oil depots over the weekend, and Tehran has targeted energy sites across the region, research from four sources indicates.
Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran’s new supreme leader, succeeding his father, according to research from four sources. The U.S. military announced the death of another service member, bringing the number killed in combat to seven, research from four sources confirms. In Iran, more than 1,200 people have been killed by Israeli and American strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society.
Petrol prices at the pump topped $4 a gallon in the US for the first time in nearly four years, according to the AAA motoring organisation. In the UK, petrol has hit 152.8p a litre, its highest in two years and around 20p more than at the start of the war, while diesel rose to 182.77p, its highest since December 2022 and 40p more than at the start, the RAC motoring organisation reports.
Average energy bills in the UK are forecast to rise an average of £288 a year from July for a typical dual-fuel household, multiple major media sources report. The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned surging oil and gas prices could contribute to a £20bn shortfall in UK public finances. The last shipment of jet fuel in transit from the Middle East to the UK is due to arrive this week, with none en route being unusual compared to an average of eight cargoes in 2025, according to data firm Vortexa. India is prioritising jet fuel exports to Southeast Asia over the UK due to high prices and shorter distances, says Mick Strautmann, a market analyst at Vortexa. The shipment arriving this week was loaded at a refinery in the Red Sea and did not pass the Strait of Hormuz, according to George Shaw, a senior insight analyst at Kpler.
The USDA raised its 2026 milk production estimate to 234.7 billion pounds, up 200 million pounds from a month ago, research from four sources indicates. The 2026 Class III milk price forecast is unchanged at $16.65 per hundredweight, according to research from four sources. The 2026 Class IV milk price forecast was raised to $17.15, up $1.45 from a month ago, research from four sources confirms. The season-average corn price remained at $4.10 per bushel, research from four sources reports.