President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia is again trying to drag Belarus into the war, citing intelligence of new roads being built on the Belarusian side of the border heading towards Ukrainian territory, as well as movements of troops and artillery. According to Zelenskyy, the Belarusian regime moved closer to war in February by allowing its territory to be used for launching Russian Oreshnik missiles. He stated that dictator Alexander Lukashenko supports the Kremlin's war against the will of Belarusians. However, Ukrainian defense officials say there are no signs that Belarus is gathering soldiers at the border. Ukraine's State Border Guard Service spokesman Andriy Demchenko reported no movements of personnel or military equipment from Belarus, though he acknowledged that Belarus maintains a number of units along the border and that Ukrainian border guards observed another stage of a sudden comprehensive combat readiness check in Belarus. Demchenko said no abnormal situations have been observed.
Assessments of Belarusian military readiness and size vary widely. According to Lukashenko, Belarus has 70,000 active-duty soldiers, and total forces are around 100,000 if troops under the Interior Ministry are included. He has also said that in the event of war, the country could muster a force of half a million soldiers. However, according to intelligence from neighboring Latvia, the Belarusian military is actually half the size that Minsk claims. Regime critic Vadzim Kabanchuk, as reported by Dagens Nyheter, doubts the half-million figure, describing it as a mantra for self-reassurance or an attempt to scare Western neighbors. Belarusian troops lack combat experience and their weapons systems are outdated; newer equipment has been sent to Russia, and most stocks are filled with Soviet leftovers that cannot match Russian weapons like Iskander missiles. A scenario of large-scale mobilization by Minsk is described as unlikely, requiring heavy pressure from Russia and causing huge domestic discontent for Lukashenko.
Lukashenko has said that in the event of war, the country could muster a force of half a million soldiers.
In 2025, Russian forces made territorial gains in Ukraine, though estimates differ. According to research from six sources, Russian gains amounted to 0.8 percent of Ukraine's territory. An AFP analysis of ISW data put the figure at more than 5,600 square kilometers, or 0.94 percent of Ukrainian territory. Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces suffered 416,570 casualties throughout 2025, for an average of 78 casualties per square kilometer seized. According to research from six sources, the average daily Russian rate of advance in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day, higher than 9.87 in 2024.
Russian forces have also adapted their tactics and technology. According to research from six sources, they began employing a new operational template relying on battlefield air interdiction, tactical interdiction, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults. They scaled production of fiber optic UAVs resistant to electronic warfare, increasing range from 7 km to 20 km by summer 2025. Russian forces also introduced 'mothership' drones that extend the range of FPV drones.
Regime critic Vadzim Kabanchuk doubts the half-million figure, calling it a mantra for self-reassurance or an attempt to scare Western neighbors.
Russia will remain a threat to Ukraine and European security for the foreseeable future, according to research from six sources. Russia has shown willingness to operate aggressively in the gray zone, including cyber attacks, influence operations, election interference, targeted killings, sabotage, and plots to place incendiary devices on aircraft. According to research from six sources, President Trump is eager to normalize relations with Moscow, contrasting with European capitals that perceive Russia as the primary threat.
Upcoming military drills in Belarus add to the uncertainty. The Zapad-2025 joint strategic drills will take place in Belarus on September 12-16, involving 5,000-7,000 Belarusian and 1,200-2,000 Russian personnel, according to research from six sources. CSTO drills (Interaction-2025, Search-2025, Echelon-2025) began in Belarus on August 31, involving over 2,000 personnel and 450 pieces of equipment. Ukrainian border guards have observed these drills.
Belarus has played a supporting role in the war so far. It allowed Russian troops to stage part of the invasion from its territory, but they withdrew within two months. Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. However, Belarusian troops have not participated directly in the conflict and remain on Belarusian territory, according to Lukashenko. The current border situation remains calm according to Ukrainian border guards.
Expert analysis offers two interpretations of Zelenskyy's warnings. Anton Naumluck, chairman of the Free Russia Foundation's Warsaw branch, told major media that Zelenskyy's warnings could be a way to strengthen ties with Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya or to increase acceptance for a possible new mobilization in Ukraine. Alternatively, Naumluck said it could be that Belarus is actually about to take a larger role in the war, despite the people's reluctance, as Lukashenko does what he or Putin wants. Putin claimed that in December, Russia had 700,000 soldiers involved in the 'special operation' in Ukraine, underscoring the scale of Russian commitment.