The Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, confirmed that Whitehall is writing a new War Book, a classified document outlining emergency powers and procedures for wartime. The previous War Book was removed in 2004, a move that defence expert Paul Mason said created a 'vacuum of public assumptions' about how the country would respond to a major conflict.
According to Daily Express - UK News, Paul Mason, an Honorary Senior Fellow at the University of Exeter, warned that modern conflict could erupt without visible warning signs. He described the modus operandi of potential adversaries as engaging in hybrid and cognitive warfare before any kinetic action, meaning the UK may never experience a clear 'last days of peace' phase like the one that activated the 1939 War Book. Mason added that all 21st-century conflicts are cognitive in nature.
The modus operandi of the enemy, to engage in hybrid and cognitive warfare in advance of kinetic, means we may never enjoy a 'last days of peace' phase such as those activating the 1939 War Book did.
Dr Rob Johnson, Director of the Changing Character of Conflict Centre at Oxford University, told Daily Express - UK News that the world is 'really quite close' to the threat of armed conflict. According to Dr Johnson, his conflict preparation dashboard shows that 94-95% of indicators are flashing, signalling heightened risk.
A report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) urges the UK to prepare for mass mobilisation and double its land force personnel. Paul O'Neill, a senior associate fellow at RUSI, told Daily Express - Politics that the best time to start ramping up UK mobilisation plans was 10 years ago. According to the House of Commons Library, as of April last year, there were 181,890 people in Britain's Armed Forces, with 82,000 in the army. Of the total, 17.5% were volunteer reserves and 77.7% were full-time service personnel. However, RUSI's report said conscription in Britain is 'currently unrealistic' as society is not ready for it.
All 21st-century conflicts are cognitive.
In response to the growing threats, Sir Keir Starmer has formed a Middle East Response Committee to handle the US-Iran confrontation. Meanwhile, Germany is pursuing rearmament plans aiming to spend about £132.7 billion on defence by 2029. A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said the UK is reversing the four-year decline in armed forces recruitment, though specific details on how the proposed doubling of land forces would be funded remain unclear.
The new War Book is being drafted amid a volatile global security environment, but its specific emergency powers and completion date have not been disclosed. The exact nature of the hybrid and cognitive warfare threats Britain faces also remains unspecified, as do the precise indicators on Dr Johnson's dashboard and the source of his data.
Is it going to be too late? I don't know.
We're about 94%, 95% complete. In other words, we're really quite close to the threat of an armed conflict.