The United States launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, according to research from nine sources. US President Donald Trump directly addressed the Iranian people, saying, 'Take over your government, it will be yours to take,' making regime change the explicit goal. Iran fired back within four hours, hitting Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, according to research from nine sources. More than 1,300 Iranians have been killed, as have hundreds of civilians in Lebanon and 15 people in Israel, according to research from nine sources.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure have produced the largest disruption to the global oil market in its history, according to the International Energy Agency. About 25 to 30 percent of global oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to research from nine sources. Following the closure on 4 March 2026, oil and LNG exports were stranded. Reports vary on the exact price: some say Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel, while others indicate prices passed $100 a barrel. The oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates collectively dropped by a reported 6.7 million barrels per day by 10 March, and by at least 10 million barrels per day as of 12 March, according to research from nine sources. LNG prices have risen by almost 60 percent since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. On March 2, QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, according to research from nine sources. About 84 percent of the crude oil and 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the strait in 2024 was bound for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for nearly 70 percent of those oil shipments, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history on Wednesday, when its 32 members unanimously agreed to release 400m barrels of emergency crude, according to research from nine sources. The US agreed to release 172m barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, according to research from nine sources. Iran issued a statement from its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to call for the Strait of Hormuz to 'remain closed', according to Mojtaba Khamenei.
Take over your government, it will be yours to take
The war has caused serious disruption to the economies of the most directly affected countries, including damage to their infrastructure and industries, according to research from nine sources. The war has caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, according to research from nine sources. The maritime blockade triggered a concurrent 'grocery supply emergency' across Gulf Cooperation Council states, which rely on the Strait for over 80% of their caloric intake; by mid-March, 70% of the region's food imports were disrupted, according to research from nine sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants—the source of 99% of drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar—have caused fears about a humanitarian crisis, according to research from nine sources.
An internal threat is building against Trump's war, according to major media reports. Several Republican senators believe Congress must vote to approve the war for it to continue beyond the 60-day limit, according to several Republican senators. Republicans are divided on the issue, according to The Hill. The U.S. military seized Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a surprise nighttime raid over the weekend, according to research from nine sources. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the war could extend eight weeks, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Six U.S. military members were killed over the weekend in a drone strike in Kuwait, according to research from nine sources. Senate Republicans blocked a measure that aimed to reign in Donald Trump’s power to wage war against Iran without congressional authorization, according to research from nine sources. The cost of the war exceeded $11.3bn in its first week, according to research from nine sources.
Remain closed
The U.S. stock market is down less than 3% since the beginning of the war, according to research from nine sources. Since 2019, the U.S. has been a net exporter of petroleum products, according to research from nine sources. The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, according to research from nine sources.
A third round of nuclear talks in Geneva had just concluded with the Omani mediator reporting 'significant progress', according to the Omani mediator. Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, testified that Iran’s nuclear program had been 'obliterated' by the US strikes on the country last year – and that Iran had made no effort to rebuild since, according to Tulsi Gabbard.
Iran’s nuclear program had been 'obliterated' by the US strikes on the country last year – and that Iran had made no effort to rebuild since.
The exact status of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei remains unconfirmed. The precise current oil price is unclear, with reports varying between $100 and $120 per barrel. The actual duration of the war is uncertain, with estimates ranging from four weeks to eight weeks. The outcome of the Senate vote on war powers is disputed, with conflicting reports on whether a resolution advanced or was blocked. The full extent of civilian casualties and humanitarian impact across the region has not been determined.