Public school enrollment edged up only 2% between 2012 and 2019, holding near 50 million students, according to research. S. 71 births per woman, well below the replacement level.
The pandemic turned a gradual decline into a sudden shock, with steep post-2020 losses documented in multiple states. The number of teenagers graduating from American high schools peaked last year and will begin declining this spring, falling steadily through at least 2041. Shrinking headcounts create immediate fiscal stress because most state and federal aid flows on a per-pupil basis.
Recent evidence confirms that steeper enrollment losses measurably raise the odds of permanent school closure. Chicago Public Schools closed 50 underenrolled public schools in 2013, according to reports. In the decade since, CPS enrollment has dropped by another 81,500 students.
CPS projects it would cost at least $10 billion to repair and modernize its schools. Brandon Johnson, now mayor of Chicago, strongly opposes closing schools, calling it an ineffective and harmful strategy. A school closing moratorium in Chicago expires in 2025, and a fully elected school board will be seated in January 2027.
According to Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ reporting, kids aren’t better off as a result of moving to other schools in 2013, and long-term savings from closures don’t appear as dramatic as predicted. Kindergarten enrollment fell most sharply for black and low-income children, whereas smaller declines in later grades were concentrated among white and higher-income students, recent evidence shows. About 60 colleges are closing on average each year, and that number could double in any given year if the bottom falls out of enrollment, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia study.
Roughly half of students at four-year colleges still attend one within 50 miles of home. 35 million today. In Kansas, the USD 112 Central Plains Board of Education voted to close Wilson High School in January 2023 and Wilson Elementary at the close of the 2025-26 school year.
Superintendent Bobby Murphy said Wilson Elementary enrollment dropped from 87 K-6 students in 2022-23 to 58 after Christmas break in the current year, a 42% drop resulting in an estimated revenue loss of over $200,000. Wilson Elementary spent just over $28,000 per student, while the state average is just under $18,000 per student, Murphy noted. Approximately 70 percent of participating residents in Wilson and Dorrance agreed to close Wilson Elementary, he added.
According to a report by a major media outlet, one school's enrollment decreased from 70 students to 16 within two years. The specific factors behind this dramatic decline remain unclear, as does how it compares to broader trends. The financial implications for the school and its district have not been detailed, and it is unknown what measures are being taken to address the drop or how the school's demographic composition has changed.