According to research from multiple sources, the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, 2026. Iran launched retaliatory strikes targeting Israel, US military bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf region, as reported by three research sources. The conflict has led to the reported killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, according to eight research sources, though his death has not been independently confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement as new supreme leader calling for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, according to eight research sources.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, disrupting about 20% of global oil and gas supplies, according to four research sources. Brent crude oil prices surged from $72 per barrel on February 27 to over $100 per barrel, a more than 40% increase, as reported by three research sources. LNG prices have risen by almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack, according to two research sources. The International Energy Agency characterized the supply disruption as the 'largest in the history of the global oil market', the agency stated.
The war has caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, according to eight research sources. The IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history on Wednesday, 400 million barrels, as reported by eight research sources. The US agreed to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, according to eight research sources. Global stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow down 1.1% and S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, according to eight research sources. The U.S. stock market is down less than 3% since the beginning of the war, according to eight research sources. The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, as reported by eight research sources.
Republican colleagues cannot explain the war's rationale and that Trump's actions are unconstitutional.
The US and Israel have made regime change in Iran an explicit goal, according to US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to www.aol.com, Senator Elizabeth Warren described that Republican colleagues cannot explain the war's rationale and that Trump's actions are unconstitutional. The White House Correspondents' Dinner is a polarizing event that Trump previously boycotted, according to eight research sources.
Oil price trajectory predictions remain uncertain. Capital Economics predicts oil prices could fall to $65 per barrel if conflict is short-lived, or rise to $130 in Q2 if prolonged. The Guardian reports oil prices passing $100 and Iran threatening $200. Different forecasts indicate uncertainty about the duration and severity of the conflict, affecting economic planning. Stock market decline measurements also vary: The Guardian reports Dow down 1.1% and S&P 500 falling nearly 1% on a specific day, while Yahoo Finance states the U.S. stock market is down less than 3% since the war began. Different timeframes and measurements lead to different impressions of market impact.
Several key unknowns remain. Is Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei actually dead? What is the exact status of the Strait of Hormuz closure and when might it reopen? How long will the conflict last and what will be the ultimate oil price trajectory? What is the full extent of the economic damage to Gulf states and global markets? Are the US and Israel truly pursuing regime change in Iran as an explicit goal? These questions continue to shape the global response to the unfolding crisis.