The conflict began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to research from six sources. Within four hours, Iran launched retaliatory ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf, as reported by two research sources. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by Iranian attacks, reducing traffic and disrupting oil and LNG shipments, according to three research sources. Brent crude oil price rose from $72 per barrel on February 27 to over $100 per barrel by early March 2026, three research sources reported. The International Energy Agency characterized the supply disruption as the 'largest in history', a spokesperson said at a press conference.
Emirates has set May 31 as the deadline for its most flexible waiver policy, allowing unlimited date changes, reroutes, or refunds for tickets issued between February 28 and April 2, according to major media reports. The airline is currently operating at about 70% of normal capacity due to regional airspace restrictions, major media reported. Emirates will only increase flights when corridors over Iraq and Iran are reliably reopened, a spokesperson said. The airline normally operates more than 3,600 flights per week from Terminal 3 of Dubai International Airport, according to major media. Corporate accounts are being urged to migrate travellers onto the airline's Manage My Booking portal to streamline mass date changes, major media reported. Emirates' policy contrasts with most European airlines, which have suspended UAE services until at least May 31, according to major media. Emirates is operating a reduced flight schedule following the partial reopening of regional airspace, a spokesperson confirmed. 'The safety and security of our passengers and crew remain our highest priority and will not be compromised,' an Emirates spokesperson said. Customers who book flights from April 2 will be offered one complimentary change, major media reported.
The safety and security of our passengers and crew remain our highest priority and will not be compromised.
Iran's retaliation included attacks on energy infrastructure. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack, according to six research sources. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, called for the Strait of Hormuz to 'remain closed', he said in a public speech. The war caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, with oil production dropping by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10 and at least 10 million by March 12, according to six research sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threatened drinking water supplies in Kuwait and Qatar, six research sources reported.
The global economic impact was severe. The IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history on Wednesday, with 400 million barrels from members and 172 million barrels from the US, the agency announced. Global stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow down 1.1%, S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and European and Asian markets also falling, according to six research sources. The US stock market was down less than 3% since the war began, with Brent crude spiking to around $120 briefly but settling near $100, six research sources reported. Deutsche Bank identified three scenarios that could trigger a 15% or larger S&P 500 drawdown: a persistent oil spike of 50-100%, an oil shock tipping a slowing economy into recession, or a hawkish central bank pivot, the bank said. The US economy grew at 1.4% in Q4 2025, shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, according to six research sources.
We are operating a reduced flight schedule following the partial reopening of regional airspace.
Humanitarian and regional consequences mounted. A 'grocery supply emergency' occurred across GCC states, with 70% of food imports disrupted and consumer prices spiking 40-120%, according to six research sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threatened drinking water supplies in Kuwait and Qatar, six research sources reported. The conflict has been described as the 'end of the narrative' that the Gulf is a safe destination for expatriates and tourists, according to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Iran's retaliation hit 10 countries, and Trump said the war could last up to four or five weeks.
US President Trump's stated goal is regime change in Iran, as per his address to the Iranian people. The exact current status of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, with conflicting reports on whether it is fully closed or partially operational. The precise peak of Brent crude oil price during the conflict is disputed, with some sources reporting a brief spike above $120 and others saying it settled near $100. The actual duration of the conflict and the number of casualties have not been confirmed.
We will only ramp up operations when over-flight corridors over Iraq and Iran are reliably reopened.
The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed.