The US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, 2026, according to research from three sources. Within four hours, Iran launched retaliatory strikes targeting Israel, US military bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf region, as reported by seven sources. The swift escalation has plunged the Middle East into a major conflict with far-reaching consequences.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping, disrupting oil and LNG flows, according to six sources. The closure stems from both Iranian attacks on shipping and a US naval blockade, though the primary cause remains disputed. Brent crude oil prices surged to $106 per barrel as of March 9, up over 40% from $72 on February 27, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. LNG prices rose by almost 60% since the start of the war, Xu added. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack, as reported by two sources. The International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest to the global oil market in history. About 25-30% of global oil and 20% of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to seven sources. In 2024, approximately 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG transiting the strait were bound for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounted for nearly 70% of oil shipments through the strait, the agency added. Oil production in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE dropped by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, according to seven sources.
The status of the Falklands 'could not be clearer'.
Amid the conflict, the US has threatened allies perceived as insufficiently supportive. An internal Pentagon email reported by Reuters suggested the US was considering reviewing the UK's claim to the Falkland Islands and suspending Spain from NATO to punish allies that failed to support its war on Iran. The State Department's website states that the Falkland Islands are administered by the United Kingdom but are still claimed by Argentina. Britain and Argentina fought in 1982 over the Falklands after Argentina made a failed bid to take them; some 650 Argentine soldiers and 255 British troops died before Argentina surrendered. Downing Street insisted the status of the Falklands 'could not be clearer'. Kemi Badenoch branded the suggestion 'nonsense'. The Lib Dems called for the monarch's trip to America next week to be called off. According to Daily Mail - News, Falklands war veteran Simon Weston described Donald Trump as a 'schoolyard bully', warning that Argentina could use the shift as an excuse for another invasion. The internal email expressed frustration at some allies' perceived reluctance or refusal to grant Washington access, basing and overflight (ABO) rights for the Iran war. The US President has repeatedly insulted Prime Minister Keir Starmer, calling him cowardly because of his unwillingness to join the US war with Iran, saying he was 'No Winston Churchill' and describing Britain's aircraft carriers as 'toys'. Britain initially did not grant a request from the US to allow its aircraft to attack Iran from two British bases, but later agreed to allow defensive missions aimed at protecting residents of the region.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has adopted a confrontational tone toward allies. He said Europe should have fewer 'fancy conferences' and 'get in a boat' because it needs the Strait of Hormuz more than America does. Hegseth added that the US barely uses the Strait of Hormuz and has plenty of energy. He claimed Europe and Asia have benefitted from US protection for decades but the time for free riding is over. Hegseth also criticized the Royal Navy and urged allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Nonsense.
Divergent claims have emerged regarding Iran's military status and leadership. Hegseth claimed Iran's military has been decimated, with no functioning air force, navy, or missile defense. He also claimed Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was 'wounded and likely disfigured'. However, Iranian leaders including President Pezeshkian were seen marching in the Quds Day rally, contradicting claims they are cowering, according to seven sources. Iran continues to launch retaliatory strikes hitting 10 countries, raising questions about the accuracy of US claims of a decimated military.
The human cost of the war is becoming apparent. A US military investigation is under way into an airstrike on a girls' school in Iran that killed at least 175 people, according to Hegseth.
Donald Trump is a 'schoolyard bully', warning that Argentina could use the shift as an excuse for another invasion.
The US Navy has 16 warships in the Middle East enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, according to seven sources. The blockade applies to all ships regardless of nationality heading into or from Iranian ports, according to Gen Dan Caine. The IEA chief Fatih Birol warned Europe has only 'maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left' if supplies remain blocked.
The economic and humanitarian fallout in the Gulf region is severe. 70% of the Gulf region's food imports were disrupted by mid-March, causing a 40-120% spike in consumer prices, according to seven sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threaten drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar, according to seven sources. The war has been described as the 'end of the narrative' that the Gulf is a safe destination for expatriates and tourists, according to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.
Europe has only 'maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left' if supplies remain blocked.
Oil price projections remain uncertain. If the conflict is short-lived, oil prices could fall back to $65 per barrel by end of 2026, according to Neil Shearing and team at Capital Economics. In a longer war scenario, oil prices could rise to around $130 per barrel in Q2, they added. The IMF warns of sustained high prices, creating divergent scenarios that affect global economic outlook and policy responses.
The US objective has evolved to regime change in Iran, with Trump and Netanyahu explicitly calling for it, according to the US President and Israeli PM. This marks a significant escalation in war aims, raising the stakes for the conflict's duration and outcome.