The ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation have produced severe disruptions to global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of the crisis. The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, killing Iran's Supreme Leader and senior leaders, leading to Iranian retaliation and a declaration of 'total war'. Commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been brought to a near standstill due to Iranian threats, effectively closing the strait.
Oil prices have surged to close to $120 per barrel due to the conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of the world's oil supply and 20% of global LNG trade transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. The UN reports immediate impacts include sharp increases in transport costs, energy and fertilizer prices, with oil up 45%, gas up 55%, and fertilizer up 35% since late February.
Disruptions to shipping are affecting supply chains, with shortages of helium and specialized gases threatening semiconductor production and fertilizer shortages risking crop yields. Europe's immediate vulnerability lies in LNG, as about 20% of global LNG trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, much from Qatar, with no viable alternative export route. European gas storage levels are below 30%, a five-year low, and need to inject nearly 60 bcm of gas to meet EU regulations of 90% capacity by December.
5 billion euros in damage due to high energy prices and inflation if the conflict continues. The IMK economic institute presented darker numbers on Thursday. 2 percent if the conflict drags on or escalates.
Germany's fragile economic recovery is threatened by the war, with estimates of 34.5 billion euros in damage due to high energy prices and inflation if the conflict continues.
9 percent, assuming the war does not last longer than summer and energy prices fall back. 1 percent if the crisis worsens. Signals were weak even before the war's full effects were visible in statistics.
1 percent in January compared to the previous month, according to statistics agency Destatis. 5 percent analysts had expected. 5 percent, against an expected increase of 1 percent.
For the coalition government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the weaker growth poses a serious problem. Lower growth gives lower tax revenues. The government needs to save 20 billion euros in its core budget next year and 60 billion euros in 2028.
Internally, discussions have begun about a possible increase in VAT from 19 to at least 21 percent. A VAT increase would be a controversial step that would break Merz's campaign promise not to raise taxes. Right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland is strengthening in the polls, with frustration over the economic situation as fuel.
Germany could see fuel shortages by April or May if the conflict does not end.
The AfD party is now level with Merz's conservatives in the polls. Regional elections in eastern Germany later this year could give the AfD power in a state for the first time. Asia is heavily exposed to the energy crisis due to reliance on imported fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to energy triage and conservation measures.
Countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand are implementing measures such as four-day workweeks, work-from-home, and energy conservation to cope with shortages. China is better positioned than neighbors due to domestic coal production, Russian oil imports, and domestic oil production, but still feels strain from Gulf oil disruptions. The IEA proposed a collective release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves on 10 March, approved by member countries on 11 March.
5%. As recently as February, IMK considered raising its forecast. Geopolitical tensions introduce supply risk premiums into oil markets, driving volatility and price increases.
The UAE placed 21st worldwide and first in the Arab region in the World Happiness Report 2026. 821 out of 10 in the World Happiness Report, ranking fourth globally for freedom to make life choices, eighth in GDP per capita, 19th in generosity, and 30th in life expectancy. 817.
Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool FC at the end of the 2025-26 season. Liverpool FC confirmed a mutual agreement for Salah's departure, with his contract concluded a year early, making him a free agent. Salah scored more than 250 goals in over 420 appearances for Liverpool, helping secure two Premier League titles, a Champions League crown, and multiple domestic trophies.
It remains unclear what specific measures the German government is taking to address the economic challenges beyond internal discussions on VAT increases. The duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure is also uncertain, with contingency plans for global energy supply if it stays shut for an extended period still developing. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict between the US-Israel and Iran are ongoing, but their current status and effectiveness are not fully known.