On February 28, 2026, a US armada and the Israeli air force launched a sustained military attack on Tehran and other Iranian cities, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking members, according to multiple reports. The campaign, which President Donald Trump authorized at 3:38 p.m. ET on Friday, was aimed at regime change in Iran. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine described the operation as a massive, overwhelming attack with more than 100 aircraft launched in a single wave, striking more than a thousand targets in the first 24 hours. Israeli media reported that the Israel Air Force eliminated 30 high-level officials in the first 30 seconds, and research indicates the strikes killed Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards Cmdr. Mohammed Pakpour, among others. US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since Feb. 28 have killed over 1,340 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to research.
In response, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel and armed drones against Israel and US military facilities in all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, multiple reports indicate. Strikes from Iran were continuing in Bahrain Sunday night into Monday morning, causing injuries and damage to houses in Sitra, according to Bahrain's interior ministry. Iran also struck civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, including ports and airports, research shows. A civilian contractor working with the UAE armed forces was killed and five Emirati military personnel were wounded in an Iranian missile attack in Bahrain, the UAE Defense Ministry confirmed. Bahrain's Interior Ministry said civil defense teams extinguished a fire at a facility in Muharraq, with no injuries reported, following what it described as Iranian aggression.
The conflict has severely disrupted global trade, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closing the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any transit faces harsh measures, according to Iranian state media. The hostilities effectively forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, research indicates, causing a global energy shock that prompted the International Energy Agency to release four hundred million barrels from its strategic reserve. Meanwhile, experts have warned that Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis may attempt to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait south of Yemen, disrupting shipping lanes. The Houthis have already launched missiles at Israel in their first attack since the current Middle East conflict broke out, research shows, and Israel said it had intercepted a missile from Yemen.
Casualty reports vary widely, reflecting the chaos of the conflict. Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 3,220 people had been killed in Iran as of 20 March, including 1,165 military personnel and 1,398 civilians. In contrast, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said the U.S.-Israeli operation has killed at least 555 people. On the Israeli side, authorities said 15 people—all civilians—had been killed by missile fire since the start of the war as of 19 March. More than 1,800 people have been killed so far, including 8 U.S. service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to research. A U.S. service member has died from injuries received during the initial attacks by Iran, bringing the total to seven service members killed in Operation Epic Fury, U.S. Central Command reported, and nine U.S. service members have been seriously wounded from attacks across the region, a U.S. official said.
Specific attacks on civilian sites have sparked disputes over responsibility. Iran accused the US and Israel of launching an attack on a girls' school near an IRGC base on 28 February, saying 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed. The US said it was investigating the incident, while Israel said it was not aware of any military operations in the area. Expert video analysis shows a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school. These incidents contribute to the broader uncertainty about the total number of casualties from the conflict, with conflicting figures from different organizations making it difficult to assess the full human toll.
Following Ali Khamenei's death, Iran's leadership is in transition. The Assembly of Experts is working to select Ali Khamenei's replacement, research indicates, and Iranian state media reports that Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen as the next supreme leader of Iran by the vote of the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was named as Ali Khamenei's successor on 8 March, according to research. However, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured and likely disfigured—a claim denied by Iran. Ali Khamenei's daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law and son-in-law were also killed, Iranian state media reported. The current status of political stability in Iran remains unclear, with internal challenges to the new leadership possible amid the ongoing war.
There will be no negotiations with the United States.
Iran's military command is being run by the Supreme National Security Council, chaired by Ali Larijani, research shows, though Larijani was among those killed. A new Provisional Leadership Council is being convened with President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as members, according to research. Iran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia, research indicates, bolstering its capabilities.
The US and Israel have targeted key sites linked to Iran's nuclear programme and Iranian oil and gas sites, including Kharg Island and South Pars, research shows. An Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on 4 March, killing at least 87 people, according to research. The full scope of Iran's retaliatory attacks, including the number and types of missiles and drones launched and their specific targets across the region, has not been fully disclosed, adding to the operational fog of war.
Friendly fire incidents have compounded US losses. In the first two days of fighting, at least three US jets have been shot down, research indicates. The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense stated that several US warplanes had crashed over their territory. The US claims that the jets were shot down by friendly fire. These losses highlight the intense and chaotic nature of the air campaign, with coordination challenges in a multi-front conflict.
Yemen's Houthis have escalated their involvement, with research showing they launched missiles at Israel in their first attack since the current Middle East conflict broke out. Israel said it had intercepted a missile from Yemen. This expansion of the conflict to include proxy groups raises the risk of further regional destabilization, particularly if the Houthis follow through on threats to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Economic implications are mounting, with attacks on critical infrastructure. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) confirmed that their facility was hit in a targeted Iranian attack on Saturday, according to Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). Two employees at Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) were lightly injured, major media reports. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is working to assess the extent of damage to the production facilities, the company stated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has taken responsibility for the operation, according to the IRGC, and claims that the attacks against Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) in Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the United Arab Emirates are a direct retaliation for the bombing of two Iranian steel plants earlier this month. Both Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) are important suppliers to industries ranging from automotive to aviation. There are fears that commodity prices will rise as a result of the attacks, people say. The exact extent of damage to these aluminum facilities and how it will impact global aluminum supply is not yet known, nor are the specific measures being taken by the international community to address the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting global energy shock.
Additional high-profile casualties have been reported. Other high-ranking Iranian officials killed include security chief Ali Larijani, intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, and the head of the paramilitary Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, according to research. Israel Defense Forces killed five Iranian senior commanders of the IRGC in a strike on a hotel in Beirut, Lebanon, the IDF said. These targeted killings suggest a concerted effort to decapitate Iran's military and security apparatus, though the broader strategic impact remains to be seen.