Hostilities began on 28 February with Operation Epic Fury, a massive joint US-Israel attack on Iran, according to research from multiple sources. The campaign killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to research from four sources, and prompted immediate retaliation from Tehran. Iran responded by launching attacks on Israel and US bases and allied states in the region, according to research from three sources, escalating what has become the most significant regional conflict in decades.
The initial US-Israel strikes targeted Iran's missile infrastructure, military sites, and leadership in Tehran and across the country, according to research from seven sources. Israel's military said dozens of senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed in the strikes. Other high-ranking Iranian officials killed include security chief Ali Larijani, intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, and head of the Basij force Gholamreza Soleimani, according to research from seven sources. The US and Israel also targeted key sites linked to Iran's nuclear program and Iranian oil and gas sites, including Kharg Island and South Pars, according to research from seven sources.
Iran's retaliatory attacks have been widespread and sustained. The IRGC said it targeted Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere. Iran has launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, according to research from seven sources, and has retaliated by targeting US military facilities, energy and civilian infrastructure in Gulf states, according to research from seven sources. Israel stepped up air strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in support of Iran, according to research from seven sources. The conflict has caused significant regional disruption, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a global energy shock that prompted the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels from its strategic reserve, according to research from seven sources.
Civilian casualties have mounted across the region, though exact figures remain contested. Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 3,220 people killed in Iran as of March 20, including 1,165 military personnel, 1,398 civilians with at least 210 children, and 657 unclassified. Major media reports indicate more than 1,500 people have been killed in Iran, more than 1,000 in Lebanon, and 18 in Israel. The US has lost 13 military personnel, according to major media, and several people have been killed in Gulf states including Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Millions of people in Lebanon and Iran have been displaced, according to major media reports. The Iranian Red Crescent reported at least 201 killed and 747 wounded by US-Israeli strikes, a significantly lower figure than other sources.
Iran described the US and Israeli strikes as 'unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate'.
One of the most controversial incidents involves attacks on educational facilities. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school near an IRGC base on February 28, killing 168 people including around 110 children. Research from seven sources indicates more than 1,800 people have been killed so far, including 8 US service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school. The US said it was investigating the school incident, while Israel said it was 'not aware' of any military operations in the area. BBC Verify reported expert video analysis shows a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school.
Unexploded munitions have created additional dangers in civilian areas across the Middle East. Major media reports pictures have emerged of projectiles, including missiles, across the region in unexpected locations. On Tuesday, a girl was pictured in a West Bank village posing next to a missile with its tailfin sticking out of the ground, according to major media. On Monday, children were pictured with part of a similar munition after it landed in a nursery school playground in the West Bank, according to major media. Earlier this month, shepherd boys in eastern Syria were pictured next to an unexploded missile that landed in an open field outside Qamishli, according to major media.
Iran's leadership transition remains uncertain following Khamenei's death. In the wake of Khamenei's death, Iran's war is being run by the Supreme National Security Council chaired by Ali Larijani, according to research from seven sources. A new Provisional Leadership Council is being convened with President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, according to research from seven sources. However, Tehran's Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him, according to research from seven sources, while other research from two sources indicates the Assembly of Experts is working to select Khamenei's replacement. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured'.
Military developments have been extensive and complex. Major media reports the conflict has been largely fought in the air. In the first two days of fighting, at least three US jets were shot down, according to research from seven sources. The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense stated 'several' US warplanes crashed over their territory. Iran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia, according to research from seven sources. An Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people, according to research from seven sources.
Ali Larijani stated 'There will be no negotiations with the United States' in response to Trump's claims.
Specific attacks on Tehran have caused significant damage and casualties. Israeli strikes on Tehran targeted areas near Iranian state television offices, the Iranian Red Crescent building, and three hospitals, according to media reports. Iran's Red Crescent Society said Tehran was hit by 60 attacks in 24 hours, killing 57 people. The Israeli Air Force conducted large-scale strikes to establish aerial superiority and pave the path to Tehran, according to the Israeli Defence Forces.
The Majdal Shams attack on July 27, 2024, killed 12 Syrian Druze children and injured at least 42 others on a football pitch, according to research from seven sources. Israel blamed Hezbollah for the attack with an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket. Hezbollah said it targeted a nearby military base and the football pitch was hit by an errant Israeli Iron Dome projectile. Western sources dismissed Hezbollah's claim, citing expert opinion the rocket was fired by Hezbollah or another militant group in Lebanon. The UN chief condemned the killing of 12 civilians in Majdal Shams and called for maximum restraint and cessation of hostilities, while the UN's top Middle East envoy warned the region is on the brink and urged all to exercise maximum restraint.
Public reactions and political statements have been mixed. People gathered in multiple cities expressing mixed reactions to the war, with some celebrating Khamenei's death, according to research from seven sources. Trump has issued conflicting statements on US military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict, according to research from seven sources.
The scale of munitions used has been enormous. Thousands of munitions have been fired since hostilities began, according to major media. Research from seven sources indicates 372 missiles and 1,806 drones have been launched at the UAE alone. Iran's strategy is to exact a cost against the US and Israel great enough to secure a durable peace, according to research from seven sources. However, major media reports the US is unwilling to commit ground troops to further its stated war aim of regime change in Iran.
Casualty reporting discrepancies highlight the difficulty in assessing the conflict's true human toll. The significant difference between HRANA's report of 3,220 killed in Iran and the Iranian Red Crescent's report of at least 201 killed suggests substantial uncertainty about casualties. Leadership uncertainty persists with conflicting reports about whether Mojtaba Khamenei has been formally appointed as successor or if the Assembly of Experts is still selecting a replacement.
Key unknowns remain about military objectives, leadership functionality, and diplomatic efforts. The specific military objectives and endgame strategies of the US and Israel remain unclear, particularly regarding regime change in Iran. How Iran's new leadership structure is functioning and who holds ultimate decision-making power following Khamenei's death is uncertain. The extent of damage to critical infrastructure, such as oil facilities and nuclear sites, and its impact on regional stability has not been fully assessed. What diplomatic efforts or negotiations are currently underway to de-escalate the conflict, and what are the key obstacles to a ceasefire, remains unknown.