The United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to research from two sources. Iran retaliated within four hours, firing ballistic missiles at Israel, US military bases, and infrastructure across the Gulf region, as reported by multiple sources. The strikes and counterstrikes mark a dramatic escalation in the Middle East, with immediate consequences for global energy markets.
Iran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing traffic through the critical waterway, according to research from two sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, causing the largest disruption to the global oil market in history. About 20% of global oil and gas supplies transit through the strait, according to seven sources, though some estimates place the figure at 25-30% of global oil and 20% of LNG. In 2024, about 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG passing through the strait was bound for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounted for nearly 70% of oil shipments through the strait, the agency added.
SAS questioned the constant warnings in an interview with Dagens Industri.
Brent crude oil prices surged from about $72 per barrel before the war to over $106 per barrel by early March 2026, according to research from two sources. Some reports indicate Brent briefly approached $120 per barrel, creating uncertainty about the actual peak. LNG prices rose by almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. WTI crude oil futures rebounded to around $91 per barrel on April 22, 2026, as reported by seven sources. Demand destruction from the disruption is estimated at 4-5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply, according to research from seven sources.
The war has caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, according to research from seven sources. Oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE dropped by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, and by at least 10 million barrels per day by March 12, as reported by seven sources. The maritime blockade triggered a grocery supply emergency in Gulf states, with 70% of food imports disrupted and consumer prices spiking 40-120%, according to research from seven sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threaten water supply in Kuwait and Qatar, according to seven sources.
Claes Pellvik, communications chief at Ving, supports SAS's position.
QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack, according to research from two sources. This further tightened global gas markets already strained by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Airlines have canceled flights and increased fees due to soaring fuel costs, according to research from two sources. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights until October, axing unprofitable short-haul flights, as reported by seven sources. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, warned that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel reserves left. The IEA stated that Europe's jet fuel will run out in six weeks if the Strait of Hormuz does not open. Jet fuel price reached $188 per barrel, 106.5% higher than the 2025 average, according to research from seven sources.
Pellvik says the warnings have been taken out of context and portrayed as much worse than they are.
However, some airlines have expressed skepticism about the constant warnings. According to Svenska Dagbladet, SAS described the warnings as exaggerated. According to the same source, Claes Pellvik, communications chief at Ving, supports SAS's position and said the warnings have been taken out of context and portrayed as much worse than they are.
The US objective is regime change in Iran, as stated by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to research. Iran has said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while US naval interceptions continue, according to an official statement from the Iranian government.
President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire on an unspecified date, according to research from two sources, but the existence and timing of a ceasefire remain unclear. Other reports suggest no ceasefire is in place and the conflict appears ongoing. This uncertainty fundamentally changes the outlook for oil markets: if a ceasefire exists, the disruption may be temporary; if not, the crisis could deepen. The exact current status of the Strait of Hormuz—whether it is fully closed or partially operational—also remains unknown. The precise percentage of global oil that transits through the strait is disputed, with figures ranging from 20% to 30%.