The US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran on February 28, according to multiple reports. These strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, multiple sources confirm. In response, Iran retaliated by launching attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf, escalating the conflict into a broader regional confrontation.
Leadership succession followed swiftly, with Mojtaba Khamenei named as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor on March 8, according to research. However, his condition is disputed. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured'. Iran denied this claim, stating he was unharmed.
The scale of US-Israel military operations in Iran was extensive. Multiple reports indicate they targeted Iran's missile infrastructure, military sites, leadership, nuclear program sites, and oil and gas sites. Senior Iranian officials killed include Ali Larijani, Esmail Khatib, and Gholamreza Soleimani, according to research. The Israeli military stated it is striking targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime in the heart of Tehran.
Civilian casualty reports are contradictory. Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 3,220 people killed in Iran as of March 20, including 1,398 civilians, with at least 210 children among them. In contrast, Hengaw reported 310 civilians and 2,090 Iranian military and security forces killed in two weeks of war. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school on February 28, killing 168 people including around 110 children. The US said it was investigating the school incident, while Israel said it was not aware of any military operations in the area. BBC Verify reported expert video analysis shows a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school. Separately, multiple reports indicate at least 175 students were killed by a reported US strike on an Iranian elementary school.
The fighting has escalated regionally. Research indicates the fighting escalated to Lebanon, with Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel in support of Iran. In the Indian Ocean, an Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people, according to multiple sources. Israeli authorities said 15 civilians were killed by Iranian missile fire as of March 19. Air combat losses were also reported early in the conflict, with at least three US jets shot down in the first two days, according to research. The US claimed the three downed jets were downed by friendly fire.
The humanitarian impact and infrastructure damage in Iran are severe. Iran's Red Crescent Society reported Tehran was hit by 60 attacks in 24 hours, killing 57 people. The Iranian Red Crescent reported at least 201 killed and 747 wounded by US-Israeli strikes. The same organization reported 20,000 civilian buildings damaged in the assault. According to a study by the Climate & Community Institute, airports, military structures, homes, and commercial buildings have been destroyed or damaged, including 16,191 residential units, 3,384 commercial units, 77 medical centres and 69 schools.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a global energy shock, multiple reports indicate. In response, the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from its strategic reserve due to the energy shock.
Military losses extend beyond initial engagements. Research indicates eight US service members have been killed in the conflict. According to a study by the Climate & Community Institute, the US has lost four aircraft: 3 F-15 fighter jets and 1 KC-135 refueling aircraft. The same study reports Iran lost 28 aircraft, including fighter jets like F-14 and SU-22.
Environmental damage from attacks on oil facilities is significant. Multiple reports indicate attacks on oil facilities in Tehran produced toxic acid rain and exposed millions to toxic pollution. According to the study, Israel bombed several oil storage facilities in Iran including those in Tehran, Shahran, and Aghdasieh. Iranian drone strikes have caused fires and damage to oil refineries and storage facilities in Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait. Iranian forces have struck at least 5 oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, the study notes.
A new study highlights the conflict's massive contribution to climate change. From 28 February to 14 March, the conflict released over five million tons of greenhouse gases, according to experts from the Climate & Community Institute. The conflict generated over 5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in the first 14 days, exceeding Iceland's annual emissions. The study estimated emissions for five major categories of activity during the war, the team reported.
A detailed breakdown of emissions sources reveals the scale. The destruction of homes and buildings had the biggest impact, contributing an estimated 2.4 million tons of CO2, according to the analysis. Destroyed fuel contributed more than 1.8 million tons of CO2 across the two-week period. The total oil destroyed at oil storage facilities across the Gulf region and in oil tankers is estimated to be between 2.5 and 5.9 million barrels, the researchers said. Other sources of emissions include fuel used in combat, missiles and drones, and equipment loss. The team estimated emissions from five activities during the first 14 days: destroyed homes and buildings, destroyed fuel, fuel used in combat and support operations, equipment embodied carbon, and missiles and drones. Fuel used in combat was responsible for 529,000 tonnes of emissions, the researchers noted. The US and Israel have relied on aerial bombardments using F-15s, F-35 and B-12 bombers, they said. Based on over 6,000 targets struck, about 2,500 flights each lasting about 3 hours have been completed, the study estimated. Equipment loss is estimated to have been responsible for 172,000 tonnes of CO2.
Overall death toll figures remain contradictory. Multiple reports indicate more than 1,800 people have been killed overall in the conflict. However, Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 3,220 people killed in Iran alone as of March 20. Hengaw reported specific civilian casualties, including Soma Salimi, Abra Zherfi, Faezeh Reyhani, and Kian Moradi.
Internationally, Iran has received military support, with Russia supplying MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, according to multiple reports.
The implications of this conflict are vast and ongoing. Key unknowns persist regarding the true condition of Mojtaba Khamenei, the exact casualty counts across nations, and the full environmental fallout from the widespread destruction of oil infrastructure and urban areas.