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US-Israel Operation Kills Iran's Supreme Leader, Triggers Regional War

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US-Israel Operation Kills Iran's Supreme Leader, Triggers Regional War
Key Points
  • US-Israeli operation on February 28 killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, triggering regional war
  • Conflicting reports on successor Mojtaba Khamenei's status and civilian casualty figures
  • Iran closed Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy shock; received Russian military support

The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, according to multiple reports. In that bombing campaign, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, research indicates. Iran responded by attacking Israel and US bases across the region, escalating the conflict into a broader war.

Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei was named as his successor on March 8, according to research. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was injured and 'likely disfigured' in the hostilities. Iran has denied the claim about Mojtaba Khamenei's injury, creating a dispute over the new leader's status.

The US and Israeli strikes targeted Iran's missile infrastructure, military sites, leadership, nuclear program sites, and oil and gas sites, research shows. Explosions were reported across several parts of southern, western and central Iran early on Wednesday, indicating the scope of the attacks.

Civilian casualties have been a major point of contention. Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 3,220 people killed in Iran as of March 20, including 1,165 military personnel and 1,398 civilians. Iran accused the US and Israel of attacking a girls' school on February 28, killing 168 people including around 110 children. The US said it was investigating the school incident, while Israel said it was 'not aware' of any military operations in the area. BBC Verify reported that a US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school. More than 1,800 people have been killed so far, including 8 U.S. service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to research. The worst killing of civilians in Iran was on the first day, when more than 150 children were killed at a girls’ primary school in Minab, research indicates.

Other high-ranking Iranian officials killed include Ali Larijani, Esmail Khatib, and Gholamreza Soleimani, according to research.

Iran has suffered naval losses, with an Iranian warship sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people, research shows. In the first two days of fighting, at least three US jets have been shot down, according to research. The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense stated that 'several' US warplanes had crashed over their territory. The United States claims that the jets were shot down by friendly fire. Iran and Israel traded fresh missile and drone strikes on Wednesday, research indicates.

The conflict has expanded to involve Lebanon, with Israeli forces aiming to take control of ground up to the Litani River, according to research. As of March 19, Israeli authorities said 15 civilians had been killed by missile fire since the start of the war. The Israeli campaign has killed at least 1,072 people in Lebanon, with more than one million displaced, according to Lebanese authorities.

Conflicting reports on civilian death tolls in Iran continue to emerge. Hengaw reported that 310 civilians have been killed in two weeks of war, while around 2,090 members of the Iranian military and security forces have been killed.

Economically, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global energy shock, research shows.

Iran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia, according to research.

Diplomatic contradictions mark the conflict. US President Donald Trump signalled talks were underway, with a 15-point peace plan reportedly sent to Tehran. An Iranian official denied that negotiations had taken place. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said there are no talks between Iran and the United States, nor have there been for the past 25 days. According to Hojatollah Faghani, Iran has not held any talks with the U.S. since the war began on February 28. Faghani also reported that the U.S. has tried to contact Iran in recent days, with messages relayed via friendly countries that the U.S. requested negotiations to end the conflict, and that Iran has reviewed and responded to these messages in accordance with its principled positions.

Iran has presented legal justifications for its actions. Iran described the US and Israeli strikes as 'unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate'. According to Hojatollah Faghani, Iran warned of serious consequences for any attacks on its vital infrastructure, stating that an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would be met with a decisive, immediate, and effective response from Iran's armed forces. Faghani also claimed Iran did not start the war; it was bombed again during negotiations with the U.S., that the war is a clear violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter, and that Iran defends itself based on its legitimate right under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

Domestically, Iran has seen public resilience and a surge in executions. Executions in Iran have surged since the June war, including for those accused of links to Israel, research shows. According to Hojatollah Faghani, on the first day of the war, Iran's leader became a martyr along with 167 schoolgirls from Minab, an event that affected public perception and strengthened their determination. Faghani reported that people in Tehran continue to go out and gather in public places every evening despite bombings, and when the U.S. recently bombed Kharg Island, many voluntarily went there to help, reflecting a social spirit deserving deeper reflection and study.

Historical context involves the nuclear agreement. According to Hojatollah Faghani, Iran has always shown that it believes in diplomacy. In 2015, Iran signed the JCPOA nuclear agreement. Faghani claimed Western countries did not fulfill their commitments under the JCPOA. President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2017. Faghani stated that Iran continued to fulfill its commitments for another year, confirmed by the IAEA in 16 separate reports, and gradually reduced its commitments within the framework of the agreement, hoping other parties would return to theirs, but this did not happen.

The conflict has caused regional spillover, with drones hitting a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, according to research.

The war has lasted nearly a month, according to major media reports. Trump has issued conflicting statements on U.S. military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict, research indicates. According to Hojatollah Faghani, the war is based on a serious miscalculation.

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