The United States and Israel launched a campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting military infrastructure and the regime's core leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini and several senior officials, according to research sources. Iran responded with extensive barrages of drone and ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, US military bases, and other targets in neighboring Gulf states, research sources said. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been closed by Iran, and the US has established its own blockade, according to major media reports. The exact timeline of the conflict remains unclear, with some reports stating nearly two months have passed since the US attack, while research sources date the start to February 28. Conflicting reports exist on whether Israel was a co-attacker alongside the US.
Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel in the opening week, then settled above $100 per barrel with occasional dips into the $90s, a cumulative increase of more than 40% over pre-war levels, according to research sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) called the disruption the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.' Violent sell-offs hit major global equity markets amid mounting fears of stagflation, research sources reported. The economic impact has been severe, with oil prices remaining elevated and markets volatile.
Equinor operates in an open market and Norwegian companies get no advantage.
The IEA fears Europe may run out of jet fuel, stating there is 'maybe six weeks' left, according to major media reports. SAS and Lufthansa have made major cancellations and said they need to save fuel and cut costs, major media reported. The aviation industry is under severe strain as fuel supplies dwindle.
Equinor's Mongstad refinery is prioritizing jet fuel production, according to major media reports. Mongstad can produce 60% of the needs of the Norwegian aviation industry, Bernt Tysseland, director at Mongstad, told NRK. According to NRK, Tysseland described Equinor as operating in an open market where Norwegian companies get no advantage. According to NRK, Frode Steen, professor at NHH, described Equinor's prioritization as a combination of social responsibility and good business.
Professor Frode Steen says Equinor's prioritization is a combination of social responsibility and good business.
Norway has only a 20-day fuel reserve requirement since 2007, while Sweden and Finland have 90-day reserves, according to major media reports. According to NRK, NHO chief Ole Erik Almlid described Norway as having low reserves and being heavily dependent on imports of critical fuel, making it vulnerable. This leaves Norway particularly exposed to supply disruptions.
The Trump administration continues to insist on practically impossible demands for peace, and these demands have grown even more unattainable following the elevation of a new Supreme Leader in Tehran, who is described as more rigid and radical than his predecessor, according to research sources. Mediation and de-escalation efforts continue, and the U.S. position has shown signs of movement, from talk of regime change to negotiations in Islamabad, research sources said. According to www.energypolicy.columbia.edu, Richard Nephew described the longer the conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that a car gets attacked by the United States or by Israel, and that Iran in turn attacks far more oil and gas infrastructure in Gulf Arab states. According to www.energypolicy.columbia.edu, Karen Young described the Trump administration as not having decided what it means to finish the job and what would be acceptable as an exit strategy. The outcome of mediation efforts in Islamabad remains unknown.
NHO chief Ole Erik Almlid says Norway has low reserves and is heavily dependent on imports of critical fuel, making it vulnerable.
Equinor operates a total of nine onshore plants in Norway, Germany and the UK, according to research sources. 90 percent of the deliveries of 11.4 billion were from Norwegian companies, research sources said. Of the total person-years associated with the operation of the land plants, 2,119 person-years were employed in Equinor, and 2,814 person-years were employed in the supplier industry through direct deliveries, according to research sources. Mongstad is an industrial site in Vestland county, Norway, featuring an oil refinery for Equinor and other oil companies, including Shell, research sources reported. The refinery at Mongstad has a capacity of 12 million tonnes of crude oil per year (230,000 barrels per day), and all the crude oil refined at Mongstad comes from the North Sea, according to research sources.
The first use of the site was in 1975, when Statoil opened its refinery, according to research sources. In 2010, Equinor and Ørsted opened the Mongstad Power Station, a natural gas-fired thermal power plant, research sources said. NEXTCHEM, through its subsidiary MyRechemical, has been selected by Mana Group and Equinor to conduct a feasibility study for a waste-to-methanol plant at Norway's Mongstad refinery, according to research sources. The project will use NX Circular™ technology to convert urban and industrial waste into chemical grade syngas for low-carbon methanol production, research sources reported. The facility has reduced CO₂ emissions by nearly 30% since 2015, according to research sources.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) called the disruption the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.'
The Middle East conflict is likely to accelerate Europe's shift away from fossil fuels in the medium term, according to Jefferies. Europe's renewable energy share rose from around 30% of EU power generation in 2019 to nearly 50% in 2025, Jefferies reported. Dependence on Russian gas has fallen from 45% to 13%, and solar installations across the EU have risen fourfold since 2019, reaching 65.6 gigawatts in 2025, according to Jefferies.
Equinor Mongstad has received a fine from Økokrim of NOK 220 million and a confiscation claim of NOK 500 million, according to research sources. Equinor disagrees with the penalty notice and will clarify the case in court, Siv Helen Rygh Torstensen, executive vice president, Legal & Compliance, said. The status of the legal case remains unknown.
Richard Nephew stated: 'The longer this goes on, the much higher likelihood it is that a car gets attacked by the United States or by Israel, and that Iran in turn attacks far more oil and gas infrastructure in Gulf Arab states.'
Karen Young stated: 'I think the Trump administration has not decided what it means to finish the job and what would be acceptable as an exit strategy.'