US and Israel face missile depletion in Iran conflict

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes aimed at destroying Iran's ballistic missiles according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has entered its second week, putting severe pressure on allied defense capabilities. Iran responded by bombing Israel and several countries in the region with US bases, according to multiple reports. Six US service members have been confirmed dead as part of Operation Epic Fury. The war has become a 'war of attrition,' according to Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, who said the question is 'who runs out of missiles first.'

The cost asymmetry between offensive and defensive systems is a central concern. A former high-ranking military official told the Daily Mail that the main issue is the rapidly declining number of interceptor missiles and Iran's vast quantity of cheap Shaheed drones. Shaheed drones cost around $35,000 per unit, while each Patriot interceptor costs around $4 million and each THAAD interceptor around $13 million, according to multiple reports. Tomahawk missiles cost upwards of $2 million apiece; gravity bombs cost roughly $25,000 per unit. Hegseth said the military has started launching 'laser-guided precision gravity bombs.' Steinar Skaar said the systems and weapons used to combat Iranian drones are often far more costly than the drones themselves. American defense contractors produce only 96 THAAD missiles a year, and the Trump administration has allocated funds to increase THAAD production to 400 a year, but this could take up to seven years, according to research. In 2023, the United States was making approximately 370 Patriot missiles a year; approximately 500 Patriots were produced in 2024, and roughly 650 a year are expected by 2027. The United States estimated last year that it had only 25 percent of the Patriots that the Pentagon’s planning required, according to The Guardian. The companies producing the missiles are in the US, and demand far exceeds production capacity, according to Christopher Preble.

Pentagon chiefs are alarmed at the rate the US is burning through Tomahawk missile stockpiles, with 850 already launched, according to unnamed Pentagon officials. One official told the Washington Post the Tomahawk stockpile was 'alarmingly low.' Another official said the Tomahawk supply is close to 'Winchester,' military slang for out of ammunition. Only a few hundred Tomahawks are made each year, according to multiple reports. In the first five days of the current Iran War, the US reportedly fired $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors. However, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said: 'The Department of War has everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the President’s choosing and on any timeline.' A US official told Semafor: 'It's something we expected and anticipated,' adding that US stockpiles are not running low. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt assured that US stockpiles were 'more than enough' to defeat Iran 'and beyond.' President Trump claimed US stockpiles of interceptors are 'virtually unlimited,' but analysts question this. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that the military's stockpiles of offensive and defensive missiles, including Patriot missiles, was 'extremely strong.' Hegseth said, 'The enemy can no longer shoot the volume of missiles they once did. Not even close,' and 'Iran cannot outlast us.' Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said, 'We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense.' President Trump expects the offensive on Iran to last 'four or five' weeks, but the military is prepared to go 'far longer.' The president has said the war should end 'soon' but both the US and Israel are prepared to fight for 'as long as necessary.'

Israel is 'running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors' amid Iranian bombardments, US officials claim. Israel was already low on interceptor stock after the 12 Days War in June 2025, according to US officials. Iran is set to add cluster missiles to its armoury, potentially worsening the problem for Israel, according to CNN. It is not clear whether the US will sell or share stockpiles with Israel, according to multiple reports. Israel is 'coming up with solutions' for their missile shortage, the US official said. Trump sold 12,000 'BLU-110A/B general purpose, 1,000-pound bomb bodies' to Israel last week, bypassing Congress by citing emergency, according to multiple reports.

Iran began the current conflict with approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles on hand and may be producing hundreds more each month, according to Israeli sources. However, Iranian drone attacks are down 95% and ballistic missile attacks are down 90%, Leavitt claimed. Iran has reduced attacks in recent days, but it is unclear if this is strategic or due to destroyed capacity, according to Kelly Grieco. Israel claims to have destroyed most Iranian launch ramps, leaving fewer than 100.

A military source told the Daily Mail that the largest concern among top brass is that the war will 'spillover into a larger regional conflict.' Increased force protection measures have been implemented, including disabling mobile location tracking on all soldiers' devices, according to a military official. Oil prices rose after two Chinese vessels were blocked from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports.

Christopher Preble said that during the 12-Day War in 2025 between Israel and Iran, capacity was severely strained. The U.S. expended roughly a quarter of its THAAD missiles in defending Israel from the Iranian barrage during a 12-day war last summer, according to research. According to the CSIS report, 150 THAAD missiles were used, which was 25% of the US inventory. Kelly Grieco said consumption of such missiles is very high, and Iran has more ballistic missiles and attack drones than Israel and the US have air defense.

Since the attacks began on February 28, the US and Israel have struck 10,000 targets in Iran, according to Centcom. However, the United States has struck 1,700 targets in Iran and suffered six fatalities, according to research. These numbers conflict, and it is unclear which is accurate. Iranian leadership has been disrupted and dozens of senior figures killed, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to research.

Officials are discussing whether Tomahawk missiles from other theaters, like the Indo-Pacific, may need to be shipped to the Middle East, according to unnamed officials. A former colonel told CNN that the high consumption of ammunition has created increased vulnerability in the Western Pacific.

Several types of missiles used by the US and Israel in offensive and defensive roles may be running out, according to a new report from Rusi. After seven weeks of war, US ammunition stockpiles are running out, according to multiple reports. How much of the U.S. interceptor stockpile is being used up is classified, according to Gen. Dan Caine. Gulf states report ample stockpiles, but they cannot sustain firing dozens per day for long, according to Steinar Skaar. The exact current state of US and Israeli missile stockpiles remains unclear due to conflicting reports. How long the US and Israel can sustain the current rate of missile expenditure is uncertain. Iran's remaining missile and drone capacity is also unknown, as is whether the US will sell or share its stockpiles with Israel. The actual number of targets struck in Iran by US and Israeli forces is disputed.