NASA sent four astronauts around the moon earlier this month, marking a key step in its Artemis programme. The agency plans to land on the lunar surface by 2028, though delays are possible. China aims to land by 2030 but could achieve that sooner, multiple reports indicate.
NASA faces significant challenges, including a budget that is a fraction of what it had during the Apollo era. The agency is also vulnerable to political changes every four years, making long-term planning difficult. In contrast, China's one-party system provides stability, and its space programme partners with the military and local businesses. China's human spaceflight programme, established in the 1990s, has accelerated rapidly over the past 25 years.
What this is really illustrating is that it doesn’t matter who gets to the moon next. It matters who gets to the moon the next 10 times. The nation that keeps going is going to be the one that actually starts to win; starts to actually claim space. That’s critical.
Private companies are critical to NASA's plans. The agency has outsourced key components to firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin, which are rushing to design and build lunar landers for test flights next year. Both the US and China plan to build inhabited lunar bases and search for rare resources. The competition is seen as a long-term marathon, with the first country to establish a presence on the resource-rich lunar surface likely gaining a head start in defining the rules. According to The Guardian - Science, astrophysicist Scott Manley said the nation that keeps going will be the one that starts to claim space. NASA chief Jared Isaacman said at a press conference, "When you do have a competition, you do not want to lose," adding that the difference between winning and losing will be measured in months, not years.
When you do have a competition, you do not want to lose.
The difference between winning and losing will be measured in months not years.