Four years since Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia still occupies roughly 20 percent of the country after gaining almost five thousand square kilometers of territory in 2025, according to research from nine sources. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintains drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted nearly 56,000 civilian casualties, while 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and 5.9 million are registered as refugees, with 10.8 million needing humanitarian assistance, research indicates.
The Trump administration pledged to seek a settlement to end the war, setting out a twenty-point draft peace deal and a June deadline, according to the Trump administration. Ukraine accepted the proposal after discussions, but many terms of the deal—including territorial concessions and security guarantees—remain unclear, research shows. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and economic development. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will host US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow before Putin's visit to India on December 4. However, Russia has stated that it will not agree to an amended deal that departs from the spirit and letter of President Putin's August summit with President Trump in Alaska, indicating a firm rejection that contrasts with ongoing diplomatic engagement.
Within Russia, dissatisfaction with the inability to advance at the front is growing, according to major media reports. Russian war bloggers describe the war against Ukraine as a failure, major media notes. In June 2023, Vladimir Putin met with military bloggers who criticized military incompetence, but no one questioned whether Russia should be in Ukraine or advocated for peace negotiations, research finds. Russian authorities cracked down on pro-Kremlin blogger Ilya Remeslo, who criticized Putin, and he was forcibly admitted to a psychiatric hospital according to opposition sources, highlighting a tension between managed dissent and repression.
On the battlefield, Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the initiative in one area and contest Russia's theater-wide initiative, research from two sources indicates. Russia's possession of the theater-wide initiative since November 2023 has allowed it to determine the location, time, scale, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely incorrectly assessed that Ukraine lacked the capability to contest the initiative. Ukrainian forces also launched a surprise counterattack near Kharkiv, encircling Balakliia and recapturing several smaller settlements, according to research.
Russian military casualties remain a point of uncertainty. The Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March 2022, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded, research shows. Western intelligence believes as many as 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of the war. The ISW estimates that even if the February 2025 pace is maintained, it could take about 83 years for Russia to capture the rest of Ukraine.
International support has bolstered Ukrainian resilience. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $188 billion in aid from the United States and $197 billion from the European Union, research indicates. Pro-government Russian military analysts admit that the Ukrainian economy remains afloat despite constant attacks, with economic growth in 2023 and 2024.
Russia's hybrid warfare extends beyond Ukraine's borders. On September 9, 2025, Russia accidentally launched nearly two dozen drones into eastern Poland, followed by additional incidents across Europe, research reports. Russia is currently stepping up its sabotage campaign across the EU as part of Moscow's hybrid war against the West, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Incendiary devices that ignited in Germany and the United Kingdom in July 2024 were reportedly part of a covert Russian operation, though the full extent and impact of these tactics are not fully detailed.
The war is in a total deadlock and could continue like this for 5–10 years.
US policy under the Trump administration has shifted in ways that affect the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has at times signaled a positive view of Russian President Vladimir Putin's leadership and questioned the value of defending Europe, research finds. Trump's administration's 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy ranks Europe below other regional priorities and casts Europe, not Russia, as the primary object of concern in U.S. security policy.
Russian propaganda has evolved over the course of the war. Russian messaging has shifted from accusations of a Nazi regime in Kyiv toward a focus on the inevitability of Russian military victory and the unreliability of Ukraine as a partner, research indicates.
Ilja Remeslo, a former convinced Putinist according to major media, has become a figure in the dissent narrative. According to Dagens Nyheter, Ilja Remeslo described the war as in a total deadlock that could continue for 5–10 years.
International relations show strains beyond the immediate conflict. Leaked documents from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) show growing skepticism toward the intentions of the People's Republic of China within Russia's counterintelligence agency, research reports.
Reactions to peace proposals within Russia suggest skepticism. Russian information space voices argue that the Kremlin will likely reject a ceasefire or any iteration of the US-proposed peace plan because it views these efforts as inconsequential.
The implications of unclear peace terms and ongoing negotiations create uncertainty for the war's trajectory. The specific terms of the US-proposed peace deal, including territorial concessions and security guarantees, remain unclear, complicating assessments of potential outcomes. The timeline for potential peace negotiations or a ceasefire remains uncertain, with conflicting signals from Russia, as seen in its rejection of amended deals while hosting US envoys.
Unknowns persist regarding Russian casualty figures and hybrid warfare impact. The exact number of Russian military casualties since the start of the war is unknown, with conflicting reports from official and Western sources. The extent and impact of Russia's hybrid warfare tactics, such as sabotage campaigns in Europe, are not fully detailed, leaving gaps in understanding their strategic effects.
Further unknowns involve the long-term outlook. The timeline for potential peace negotiations or a ceasefire remains uncertain, with conflicting signals from Russia. The long-term economic and humanitarian impacts on Ukraine, beyond current statistics, are not fully assessed, adding to the war's enduring challenges.