Ukraine is facing a major conscription crisis, with Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov admitting the country has 2 million draft-dodgers and hundreds of thousands more absent without leave. Research indicates Ukraine is confronting an acute manpower shortage as the war enters its third year, severely straining its defense capabilities against relentless Russian assaults.
The scale of draft evasion is massive, with the Ukrainian prosecutor's office reporting some 290,000 cases opened since 2022 against soldiers for abandoning their posts. Thousands of men are avoiding military service due to seeing the impact on peers and nervousness about being called up, according to research. Governmental mismanagement and misinformation have led to hundreds of thousands skirting the law while those already serving wait endlessly for reinforcements, creating a dysfunctional mobilization system.
At the beginning of the war, I went to the enlistment office myself, but was told they didn't need me yet.
Public sentiment reflects deep concerns about the conscription process, with a large share of Ukrainian males liable for military service understanding mobilization is necessary but believing it needs to be just and better organized. Research shows fears deterring people from joining the army include lack of proper training and ending up under a bad commander. A general mobilization is believed to be unpopular with Ukrainians, as acknowledged by President Zelenskyi, though his decree on general mobilization has been in force since February 24, 2022.
The government and military are attempting to improve mobilization through multiple measures, including punishing corrupt officials, digitalizing military records, introducing professional recruitment, amending mobilization law, and balancing economic and military needs. The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a new bill on mobilization to standardize military registration rules and sanctions for evaders, marking the second attempt by MPs to address mobilization after President Zelenskyy announced an additional request from the General Staff for 500,000 recruits. According to The Independent - World, Denys described initially volunteering but later witnessing injustice with people buying their way out and others being forced into service despite illnesses.
Later I saw injustice, people buying their way out, untouchables, and others being forced into service despite illnesses.
Corruption scandals have intensified public dissatisfaction, particularly involving military enlistment offices. In August 2023, President Zelenskyy signed an order dismissing all heads of regional recruitment centers in response to these scandals. However, sources in military structures said this decision brought more problems than results, as former heads were professionals and new leaders have to learn in combat conditions, with Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi referring to former heads as professionals. The issue of mobilizing 500,000 people has become a stumbling block between the government and the military, specifically between Zelenskyi and Zaluzhnyi, with the military pointing out the need to replace fighters while the government argues this should have been addressed two years ago.
Historically, Ukraine experienced a volunteer surge early in the conflict, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces growing from 246,000 personnel in February 2021 to approximately 700,000 in October 2022. Ukraine liberated 45% of territory previously captured by Russia with an influx of highly motivated volunteers during this period. However, toward the end of the second year of the war, the number of volunteers has decreased significantly, indicating weariness and uncertainty about the war's duration, with recruitment slowing by the end of 2022 and becoming a major problem after the failed summer counteroffensive in 2023.
I have a sick father to care for and fear injury would prevent me from helping.
Coercion and human rights abuses have marred the conscription process, with Artem, a 29-year-old from Zakarpattia, claiming he was beaten and forced by a conscription patrol to attempt to cross the Slovakian border, then paid $17,000 for release and a fake permit. Between January and June, the Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman's office received over 2,000 complaints about the use of force by conscription patrols. In one case, patrol officers hit a bicyclist with their car, beat and tear-gassed him to deliver him to a conscription office, and later volunteered for the front to avoid charges, according to research.
Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians continue unabated, with five people killed in a Russian drone attack on a market in Nikopol and at least 19 others injured, according to Ukrainian officials. Three women and two men were killed, and a 14-year-old girl was among the wounded, according to Oleksandr Hanzha, with Ukraine's prosecutor general's office claiming the attack was 'yet another war crime.' Nikopol is a regular target of bombardment as it faces Russian-occupied territory across the Dnipro river, highlighting the persistent threat to civilian areas.
I would serve if Russians end up outside Kyiv again and everyone is serving.
Additional attacks occurred across Ukraine overnight, with Sumy hit and at least 11 people wounded including a 15-year-old, according to the National Police, while residential areas were damaged along with houses, cars, and utility networks. A drone strike caused a fire in a Kyiv office and warehouse building, with no casualties reported, and in Donetsk region, a Russian drone strike hit a civilian car, killing one woman and wounding another, according to Serhiy Horbunov. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed its forces fired precision weapons and strike drones at military-industrial and energy facilities used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, though these attacks coincided with President Zelenskyy's meeting in Istanbul with Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Russia's espionage and grey-zone warfare against the UK have escalated, with UK officials saying the country is locked in a 'grey zone war' with the Kremlin, according to research. Russia's spy sensors were discovered in UK waters, likely targeting the navy's Vanguard-class submarines capable of carrying nuclear missiles, while experts believe the Kremlin may be mapping critical underwater infrastructure for sabotage. Grey zone warfare refers to actions between peace and open war, such as undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, espionage, and sabotage, creating a persistent threat below the threshold of conventional conflict.
We are exhausted but too 'useful' to be rotated out.
Russian military threats to NATO have intensified, with Kremlin military files seen by the Financial Times in 2024 revealing 32 locations across NATO countries that Russia could strike with nuclear and conventional missiles, including three in the UK. Russia's Northern Fleet poses the most stark missile threat to the UK since the Cold War, according to William Freer, with Russian hostile acts on UK soil including the use of a deadly nerve agent in Salisbury, cyber incidents, espionage, and arson, as announced by the UK in April 2025. The UK government is working to increase defense spending, place more sanctions on Russia, and launch schemes to identify Russia's threat, though some experts say the UK may be too late to defend itself.
Suspicious Russian vessels in NATO waters have raised alarms, with Russian fishing trawlers docking in Kirkenes, Norway, including Arka-33, which had docked weeks earlier and hadn't left, according to research. The Russian government declared that commercial vessels could be co-opted by the military for any purpose, while locals in Kirkenes noticed Russian fishermen were younger than before the war and sometimes did physical-training exercises on deck. Russian sailors carry handwritten seafarer passports, making it unclear who is on board, and Arka-33 belongs to a Russian crab-fishing company whose CEO used to run private security companies, with his wife a sanctioned Russian parliament member, and was moored in a position used by the Norwegian military's electronic-intelligence-collection vessel.
It's hard to see people come back different from the war and I feel guilty but don't see the point of joining now.
Russia is reorganizing its military forces, with the Russian national guard (Rosgvardia) incorporating three former Wagner assault detachments into its first volunteer corps formation, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a law on December 25 authorising the Russian national guard to form its own volunteer formations, with Rosgvardia likely to deploy its new volunteer detachments to Ukraine and Africa, offering six-month contracts for Ukraine and nine-month for Africa. The incorporation of former Wagner detachments indicates Wagner has been successfully subordinated to Rosgvardia, increasing Russian state command and control over Wagner and streamlining irregular forces.
Diplomatic efforts continue amid the conflict, with a deal reached on a €50bn aid package for Ukraine at an EU leaders summit, with all 27 leaders agreeing, according to research. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed gratitude for the EU aid package in an official statement, though the detailed terms and disbursement mechanisms remain unspecified. This support comes as Ukraine's institutional weakness and lack of clear leadership from top officials make the mobilization process disorderly and slow, exacerbating the challenges on the battlefield.
The broader implications of Ukraine's conscription crisis include deepening societal divides, with the situation creating a rift between those who fight and those who don't, according to research. Ukraine is switching to a war of attrition, with the Ukrainian military struggling to keep its ranks filled as Russian forces send wave after wave of recruits to the front line. According to www.military.com, Alexei described it being hard to see people come back different from the war and feeling guilty but not seeing the point of joining now, reflecting the psychological toll and recruitment challenges.
Key unknowns persist regarding Ukraine's mobilization efforts, including what specific measures are being implemented to address corruption in the conscription system and how effective they are. The exact current size and composition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains unclear, with discrepancies between estimates of approximately 700,000 in October 2022 and claims of one million personnel almost three years after February 2022. Additionally, the extent to which Russian fishing trawlers like Arka-33 are involved in espionage or military activities in NATO waters is not fully understood, complicating defense assessments.