Britain is failing in its efforts to fight a hybrid war with Russia and is dangerously unprepared for a wider-scale global conflict, according to experts and former officials who warn that the government must urgently consider conscription and whole-society mobilisation.
Fiona Hill, former director for European and Russian affairs in the National Security Council under Donald Trump, said the UK's contingencies for dealing with present and future disruptions are 'not fit for purpose'. The UK has no single minister responsible for national resilience in times of crisis, according to multiple reports. Lord Toby Harris, chair of the National Preparedness Commission, told Daily Express - UK News that a national conversation on preparedness is 'way, way short' of engaging every citizen, and that more needs to happen in schools and businesses, as most business leaders do not see preparedness as their responsibility. The UK also lacks an effective system to monitor small drones that could be weaponised, Hill said.
In the UK, our systems are not designed to cope with major disruptions. It is up to the leadership to come up with a plan because, at the moment, what is there is not fit for purpose.
The heads of the British army, navy and air force have identified Russia as the principal threat to the UK. General Sir Richard Barrons, former top military commander and co-author of the Strategic Defence Review, told The Independent - Main that none of the UK services could do 'anything substantial'. He described the armed forces as capable of making only a very small contribution to a US-led or NATO undertaking. According to The Independent - Main, Barrons said the army could 'seize a small market town on a good day'.
The UK has promised NATO a strategic reserve corps of between 30,000 and 50,000 troops, but the army lacks the equipment, training and support to deliver that, Barrons said. The Royal Navy had 50 major surface combatant ships in 1990, now has 13 and cannot get all to sea at once. The Royal Air Force had 850 combat jets in 1990, now has 160. The British Army has halved in size from about 150,000 regulars and 73,000 reserves to around 70,000 regulars and 23,000 reserves since the end of the Cold War.
We have seen the effects of choke points in the Gulf, disruptions to transport. The NHS cannot cope with mass casualties, and we need to build up food supplies and systems to cope with disruption to imports.
The UK is critically short of artillery after giving large amounts to Ukraine, according to Jack Watling, senior research fellow at RUSI. Watling told The Independent - Main that the Ukrainians lost 10,000 people defending Bakhmut, which would be almost the entire infantry force of the British military. This comparison underscores the scale of potential losses the UK would face in a similar conflict.
Lord Robertson, former secretary general of NATO, accused the government of 'corrosive complacency' over failure to implement the Strategic Defence Review's 62 recommendations. Sir Keir Starmer faces accusations of 'complacency' from critics including Labour and Tory MPs over the UK's lack of preparedness for the war in the Middle East. Starmer admitted to MPs he was unable to give a timetable for the end of the conflict despite Donald Trump's declaration of a ceasefire.
We don’t have archives of maps digitised and no analogue systems to use if digital systems collapse. This is an urgent national debate that needs to happen now.
Sweden has trained licensed electricians as emergency repair crews for the electricity network as part of civilian preparedness, according to multiple reports. Estonia has a defence model based on conscription and a reserve force that can be mobilised at speed, including snap exercises with 48-hour call-up. According to Daily Express - UK News, Elisabeth Braw, report author, described Estonia's system of snap exercises as a deterrent that signals to Russia that reservists can be mobilised quickly, making military action against Estonia difficult.
Israel warned that Iranian missiles are a threat to European cities including London, Paris and Berlin. Moscow had been undertaking a month-long submarine operation in British waters, according to multiple reports. The head of MI6, Blaise Metreweli, said last year: 'We are now operating in a space between peace and war.'
We are now operating in a space between peace and war.
Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty claimed Germany bailed Britain out and the Royal Navy had run out of ships. Lord Richard Dannatt, former head of the British Army, told GB News - Politics that the UK was 'not in a position' to resist threats posed by Russia over 'critical vulnerabilities' in Britain's defence, and that the risks have come home to roost.
The government's response to defence preparedness remains disputed. Critics argue the government is failing to act and is complacent, while the government points to the Strategic Defence Review and Cobra meetings as evidence of action. This political dispute affects public trust and policy direction. Unknowns include what specific actions the UK government is taking to address the identified gaps, the exact timeline for implementing the Strategic Defence Review's 62 recommendations, how many troops the UK can actually deploy in a crisis, the status of the Royal Navy's ability to protect overseas territories, and the extent of Russia's submarine operations and UK countermeasures.
A national conversation means that every citizen is engaged in it and we're way, way short of that.
There needs to be more going on in schools, there needs to be more going on in businesses. If you spoke to most business leaders, they would not see it as their responsibility. They would see it as something government had to do and not 'well what could be our contribution?'.
That's something that is indispensable in war because the Russians will target electricity infrastructure as they already do in Ukraine. If war comes, we will depend on those kinds of people, not just on people carrying arms.
Estonia has a brilliant system of having snap exercises. So if you can show that you can call up your reservists on 48 hours' notice, which is what the Estonians can do, and that keeps the reservists up to date and engaged, but by conducting these exercises, Estonia also signals to Russia that all those reservists... will be able to get to where they need to be very quickly. So it would be a pain for Russia to try anything — try any military action — against Estonia.
The Armed Forces that we have now, because of their size, but also because of their sophistication, can make a very small contribution on land, in the air and at sea, to an enterprise either led by the US or more likely a Nato undertaking. What it cannot do is anything substantial.
Today’s army frankly could do one very small thing, essentially it could seize a small market town on a good day.
The conundrum that we live with today - and it is profoundly important - is we've now entered a new era in global affairs, a much greater risk. But we're entering it with the Armed Forces we were left with from a much more comfortable, peaceful time.
The risks have come home to roost.