The National Audit Office projects that falling pupil numbers will lead to a £288 million funding loss by 2027, based on 56,300 fewer primary pupils compared to 2026. Primary school pupil numbers have been dropping since 2018/19 and are expected to fall another 7% by 2030, according to the NAO. With school funding directly tied to pupil numbers, this decline threatens financial stability and educational quality, as noted by Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Public Accounts Committee.
Some primary schools are already being forced to merge or close entirely due to dwindling numbers, and disadvantaged pupils could be disproportionately impacted. ' She added that there has been 'no government strategy to mitigate that risk,' endangering community schools. Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the school leaders’ union NAHT, noted that the decline is hitting smaller schools hard, with closures particularly in London and other high-cost areas, though demand remains high in some regions due to population shifts.
The pressures on primary schools caused by the double whammy of inadequate per pupil funding and falling rolls has created a huge risk to the viability of many small primaries.
The DfE only started specifically tracking demographic risks in 2024 and lacks a clear support approach, according to the NAO. It remains unknown what specific measures the DfE plans to address the shortfall or how many schools have already closed, with regional impacts still unclear.
There’s been no government strategy to mitigate that risk and there’s a real danger that more communities will lose schools which have been a feature of those communities for decades.
The sector is working really hard to try to keep these schools open – cutting costs to the bone through measures such as mixed-aged classes. But there’s a point at which it’s not possible to employ enough staff to actually run a school and keep the doors open.