A new classified 'War Book' is being drawn up in Whitehall for the first time since 2004, according to multiple reports. Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton confirmed that Whitehall is writing a new War Book 'in a modern context, with modern society and modern infrastructure.' The original War Book underpinned government planning from 1939 onwards, providing a roadmap for mobilisation, before being scrapped in 2004.
Defence expert Paul Mason, an honorary senior fellow at the University of Exeter, warned that modern conflict could erupt without visible warning signs, leaving the country unprepared. Mason urged ministers to rebuild the War Book framework and place it under explicit democratic control. He argued that the removal of the old War Book in 2004 created a 'vacuum of public assumptions about what the state might do if the UK found itself on the brink of kinetic war.'
Is it going to be too late? I don't know.
Dr Rob Johnson, Director of the Changing Character of Conflict Centre at Oxford University, warned that the world is 'really quite close' to the threat of armed conflict. A majority of indicators on a conflict preparation dashboard devised by Johnson are flashing.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) urges the UK to prepare for mass mobilisation and double its land force personnel numbers due to threats from Russia. RUSI's report argues that mobilisation in Britain will need to go beyond expanding volunteer reserves or recalling veterans. Paul O'Neill, senior associate fellow at RUSI, said the best time to start ramping up UK mobilisation plans was 10 years ago, and the next best time is now. As of April last year, there were 181,890 people in Britain's Armed Forces, with 82,000 in the army. Of the total armed forces, 17.5% were volunteer reserves and 77.7% were full-time service personnel.
We're about 94%, 95% complete. In other words, we're really quite close to the threat of an armed conflict.
The report also considers conscription. Paul O'Neill said legally mandating compulsory enlistment should be considered, as debated in Germany and pursued in France. Germany is pursuing rearmament plans aiming to spend about £132.7 billion on defence by 2029. However, RUSI's report said conscription in Britain is 'currently unrealistic' as society isn't ready and the Armed Forces cannot absorb a significant intake.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said it is reversing the four-year decline in armed forces recruitment, with more joining than leaving for the first time since 2020. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer formed a Middle East Response Committee to handle the escalating US-Iran confrontation.