A new classified 'War Book' is being drawn up in Whitehall for the first time since 2004, according to multiple reports. Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton confirmed that Whitehall is writing a new War Book 'in a modern context, with modern society and modern infrastructure.' Separately, Sir Keir Starmer formed a Middle East Response Committee to handle the escalating US-Iran confrontation.
Defence expert Paul Mason warned that modern conflict could erupt without visible warning signs, unlike previous wars. He argued that the removal of the old War Book in 2004 created a 'vacuum of public assumptions about what the state might do if the UK found itself on the brink of kinetic war.'
We're about 94%, 95% complete. In other words, we're really quite close to the threat of an armed conflict.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) urges the UK to prepare for mass mobilisation and double its land force personnel numbers due to threats from Russia. However, RUSI's report says conscription in Britain is 'currently unrealistic' as society isn't ready and the Armed Forces cannot absorb or train a significant intake. As of April last year, there were 181,890 people in Britain's Armed Forces, with 82,000 in the army, according to the House of Commons Library. Of the total, 17.5% were volunteer reserves and 77.7% were full-time service personnel.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it is reversing the four-year decline in armed forces recruitment, as more personnel are now joining than leaving for the first time since 2020. The MoD also said female applicants to the Army are at the highest level in five years. However, experts warn of the proximity of conflict. Dr Rob Johnson, Director of the Changing Character of Conflict Centre at Oxford University, warned the world is 'really quite close' to the threat of armed conflict. A majority of indicators of conflict preparation and armed attack on a dashboard devised by Dr Rob Johnson are flashing.
Internationally, Germany is pursuing massive rearmament plans, aiming to spend about £132.7 billion (153 billion euros) on defence by 2029.