Barclays will kick off FTSE 100 banks earnings season on Tuesday, according to major media reports. Lloyds will report on Wednesday, Standard Chartered on Thursday, and Natwest on Friday. HSBC will report on 5 May, major media said.
The pre-tax profit for the FTSE 100's Big Five banks is expected to be just shy of £16bn, major media reported. This would be slightly ahead of the £15.2bn in Q1 2025 but below the nearly £17bn in 2024 and £18bn in 2023.
Net interest income is expected to hold up well due to an almost total halt in interest rate cuts worldwide, according to Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. However, higher impairment charges could limit profit growth, Mould added. Analysts expect loan provisions across the five banks to be £2.6bn, the highest first-quarter charge since 2020, major media reported. In Q1 2022, Lloyds profit fell to £1.6bn from £1.9bn in 2021 after a £117m provision for bad loans. HSBC reported a $200m rise in expected credit losses to $900m in Q1 due to geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs, the bank said. Barclays increased provisions for bad debts to £643 million from £513 million a year ago, citing US macroeconomic uncertainty, the bank said.
Investment banking activity is expected to increase, following a $50bn haul by top US banks in Q1, major media reported. Barclays increased guidance for net interest income to more than £12.5 billion, the bank said.
The war in the Middle East has caused the largest disruption to the global oil market in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Brent crude oil price rose from about $72 per barrel to over $100 per barrel, research from three sources indicated. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, disrupting about 20% of global oil and gas supplies, according to research from four sources. Iran launched retaliatory strikes hitting Israel, US bases, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, research from two sources said. The US and Israel conducted coordinated attacks on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, according to reports. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, research from ten sources indicated. The war has caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, according to research from ten sources. Oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE dropped by at least 10 million barrels per day as of 12 March, research from ten sources said. The war has caused a 'grocery supply emergency' across Gulf states, with 70% of food imports disrupted and consumer prices spiking 40-120%, according to research from ten sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threaten drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar, research from ten sources indicated. The conflict has been described as the 'end of the narrative' that the Gulf is a safe destination for expatriates and tourists, according to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.
The IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history, 400 million barrels, the agency said. The US agreed to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, the White House said. The US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, according to research from ten sources. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the US economy is growing at a 2.7% pace in Q1 2026. Polymarket puts the chances of a US recession at 31%.
HSBC's central scenario estimates GDP growth in most affected markets could be 40 bps lower in the first year and 20 bps lower in the second year due to tariffs, the bank said. HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery said it is critical that the dollar maintains its status as the dominant currency.
The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee said the UK banking system remains strong and able to support households and businesses even in substantially worse conditions.
The exact peak price of Brent crude oil during the conflict remains unclear, with some reports suggesting it surged past $100 per barrel while others indicate it exceeded $120 per barrel. The duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure is unknown, and the full extent of damage to Iranian nuclear and military sites has not been confirmed. Whether UK banks' Q1 2026 profits will meet or exceed expectations given the geopolitical turmoil is uncertain, as is the actual impact of the war on global GDP growth beyond HSBC's estimates.