On February 28, the United States and Israel launched large-scale strikes against Iran following a period of military buildup and threats from President Donald Trump, according to multiple reports. The operation, dubbed Epic Fury by U.S. and Israeli forces, targeted Iranian military assets and top leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump described the campaign as 'a massive and ongoing' effort and declared that its aim was regime change in Tehran. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which at least 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes, caused a global energy shock, prompting the International Energy Agency to release four hundred million barrels from its strategic reserve.
Operation Epic Fury involved two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups and advanced aircraft, operating alongside the Israeli air force, research indicates. The initial attacks targeted Iran's missile infrastructure, military sites, and leadership in Tehran and across the country. In the first two days of fighting, at least three U.S. jets were shot down, with the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense stating that 'several' U.S. warplanes had crashed over their territory. The United States claims the jets were downed by friendly fire. The decapitation strike killed Khamenei along with up to two hundred senior military and civilian figures, including two generations of his family, leaving Iran's war effort under the direction of the Supreme National Security Council chaired by Ali Larijani. Israel's military says dozens more senior figures in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were also killed.
Iran retaliated with waves of ballistic missiles and armed drones targeting U.S. military facilities and energy infrastructure in all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as well as direct attacks on Israel. The IRGC said it targeted Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere. In Israel, Iranian missiles caused serious damage, killing and injuring scores of people. As of March 19, Israeli authorities said 15 civilians had been killed by missile fire since the start of the war, while The Times of Israel reported that Iranian strikes killed 28 Israeli civilians and one off-duty soldier, and caused 3,238 hospitalized injuries. Countries hosting U.S. military bases—including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait—experienced strikes leading to casualties among security personnel and foreign workers, with reports suggesting at least 20 people killed across these nations.
The succession to Khamenei has become contested amid the turmoil. Tehran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him, according to research. A new Provisional Leadership Council is being convened with President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as members. However, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth later said the successor had been injured and 'likely disfigured'—a claim denied by Iran.
High-profile Iranian military and nuclear figures have suffered heavy casualties. Regional sources said at least 20 senior commanders were killed in the strikes. Confirmed casualties include Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC commander Hossein Salami, IRGC senior commander Gholam Ali Rashid, and IRGC commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh. The IDF said a strike on an underground command center killed most of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force's leadership after they convened for a meeting. The New York Times reported the death of Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, although Israel believes he is still alive. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy, Hassan Mohaqeq, were killed. Nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were also killed, according to Iranian state media. Ali Shamkhani, a rear admiral and member of the Expediency Discernment Council, was reportedly killed in an airstrike on June 13, 2025, but Iranian media confirmed on June 20 that he was still alive and in stable condition after recovering from severe injuries.
The civilian toll has been severe and controversial. More than 1,800 people have been killed so far, including 8 U.S. service members and at least 175 students killed by a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to research. The U.S.-based group Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 3,220 people had been killed in Iran as of March 20 – including 1,165 military personnel and 1,398 civilians, of which at least 210 were children. Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of launching an attack on a girls' school near an IRGC base in southern Iran on February 28, saying 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed. The U.S. said it was investigating the incident, while Israel said it was 'not aware' of any military operations in the area. Expert video analysis by BBC Verify shows a U.S. Tomahawk missile hit a military base near the school, and independent analysis suggests the missile struck the nearby base, raising questions about collateral damage risks in densely populated areas. The Iranian health ministry stated that more than 4,000 people have been wounded.
U.S. and Israeli forces have also targeted Iran's economic and nuclear infrastructure. They struck key sites linked to Iran's nuclear programme—which Iran insists is entirely peaceful—and Iranian oil and gas sites, according to research. Targets include Kharg Island, home to a major oil terminal considered Iran's economic lifeline. Israel also targeted South Pars, part of the world's largest natural gas field. These strikes aim to cripple Iran's capacity to fund and sustain its war effort.
There will be no negotiations with the United States.
International reactions have been mixed, with legal challenges and conflicting statements emerging. Iran has described the U.S. and Israeli strikes as 'unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate.' Susan M. Akram, a professor at Boston University and non-resident fellow at ACW, stated that the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran cannot be legally justified under any theory of the laws of war. Trump issued conflicting statements on U.S. military objectives and the trajectory of the conflict.
Context for understanding the conflict is hampered by an information blackout. Access to Iran for international journalists is limited, and internet connectivity in the country has been almost entirely restricted, research indicates. Outside its territory, an Iranian warship was sunk by a U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people. This limited access makes independent verification of casualty figures and battlefield conditions difficult.
The diary of Yousef Pezeshkian, the 45-year-old assistant physics professor son of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offers a rare window into Iranian society during the war. According to major media reports, Pezeshkian has not seen his father since the war started and keeps a diary on social media expressing doubts about the war's outcome, charting the war effort, its impact on ordinary Iranians, and how to make it more effective. His writings reveal the fluctuating hopes and fears of a government supporter in Iran's highly censored society.
Pezeshkian's critiques extend to censorship and government decisions. He expresses anger about the internet blackout imposed by the Iranian government and about censored news, major media reports indicate. He questions the value of knowing information 48 hours before others and says he hears what is happening from television or social media, revealing no official state secrets and stating he has none. He also gripes about his father's apology to the Gulf states, who have been on the receiving end of Iranian missiles. These entries highlight internal frustrations with information control and diplomatic maneuvers.
His diary also reflects internal debates and uncertainties within Iran. Pezeshkian addresses decision-making over the war, reflecting debates about how long to fight and end-of-war scenarios. These reflections underscore the complex calculations and morale challenges facing Iran.
Military and strategic unknowns persist, including the extent of external support. Iran has received MiG-29 Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia, according to research. The full scope of Russian involvement or influence beyond these arms supplies remains unclear, as does the direct role of other regional powers like Gulf states. The current battlefield status and specific military objectives achieved by the U.S. and Israel are not fully known, with the location of President Masoud Pezeshkian during the war also uncertain.
Broader unknowns cloud the conflict's trajectory. The exact terms or conditions being discussed for potential ceasefire or end-of-war scenarios have not been disclosed. The full extent of economic and humanitarian impacts inside Iran, given censorship and limited access, remains difficult to assess. These uncertainties complicate efforts to gauge the war's duration and its ultimate resolution, leaving regional stability in jeopardy.