The U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated joint attack against Iran on February 28, targeting key officials, military commanders, and facilities, according to research from seven sources. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the attack, the same sources indicate. Iran responded by attacking U.S. military bases, infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities across various Middle East countries. Tehran announced full control of the Strait of Hormuz and claimed it would attack every ship passing through it, according to research from seven sources.
Immediate impact on the Strait of Hormuz has been severe, with at least four tankers struck in the strategic waterway, according to research from seven sources. Maritime traffic through the strait dropped by 80%, though analysis by Kpler notes Iran has not formally closed it, with only limited traffic continuing, primarily Iranian- and Chinese-flagged ships. Commercial operators, major oil companies, and insurers have effectively withdrawn from the Strait of Hormuz corridor, the research indicates. This has created a de facto blockade of a chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes, around 20 million barrels each day, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The economic shockwaves are profound. Oil prices have soared to close to $120 a barrel, according to research from seven sources. Insurance premiums for the Strait of Hormuz had reached six-year highs ahead of the strikes. UN estimates indicate oil prices have risen by around 45%, gas by 55%, and fertilizer prices by 35% since late February. Hamza Ali Malik, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy Division at ESCAP, stated in a press conference that the immediate economic impacts are considerable increases in freight costs and oil, gas, and fertilizer prices.
Qatar's energy sector was directly targeted, with Iran launching drones against two key operating facilities in the country, according to research from seven sources. Qatar announced it will close the world's biggest LNG facility and stop production. The closure cuts Qatar's LNG export capacity by 17%, causing an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue, the research indicates.
Due to the ongoing Iran-US conflict... Jedco must proactively manage its available energy reserves... we are prioritising a strategic rationing of power.
Asia is facing an energy emergency. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending shockwaves through the continent's energy systems, according to research from seven sources. The Philippines declared a 'national energy emergency' due to fuel shortages, the government confirmed. The country is rolling out fuel subsidies, raising transport fares, and introducing a four-day work week for civil servants. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr warned of a 'distinct possibility' of grounding aircraft due to jet fuel shortages. South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Hyun asked Oman for support on crude oil and LNG shipments, according to research from seven sources.
China is feeling strain from the blockade but is in a better position than neighbours due to years of statecraft preparation, according to research from seven sources. The country uses an estimated 15 to 16 million barrels of oil daily, various market analysts report. Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports, and China is the world's largest coal producer, accounting for more than half of global production, the research indicates.
Southeast Asia's power markets are also affected. Wood Mackenzie says the Middle East conflict will have a limited near-term impact on Southeast Asia power markets but raises long-term energy security risks. Singapore's wholesale electricity prices increased by around 20% in the third week of March compared to pre-conflict levels, according to research from seven sources.
In Africa, South Sudan has begun rationing electricity in the capital, Juba. Major media reports that South Sudan has announced measures restricting electricity consumption due to the fuel crisis triggered by the US and Israel's war in Iran. People are queuing for long hours at petrol stations in Juba due to fuel scarcity, witnesses say. Security personnel have reportedly reached a deal with fuel station owners on what portion of fuel stocks may be sold on the black market in Juba, according to research from seven sources.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr warned of a 'distinct possibility' of grounding aircraft due to jet fuel shortages.
Mauritius is facing an energy emergency. According to the government of Mauritius, a shipment of oil that had been due to arrive over the weekend did not materialise, leaving the country with only 21 days of stock. Mauritius has imposed restrictions to reduce wastage especially in high-power consumption areas. Major media reports that Mauritius is heavily dependent on oil imports for generating its electricity and that a shortage of oil has reportedly triggered an energy emergency. Energy Minister Patrick Assirvaden said on Monday that the government had obtained alternative fuel supplies from Singapore that were due to arrive on 1 April and more later in the month, but at a higher cost.
South Sudan's energy challenges are compounded by structural issues. Major media reports that South Sudan has some of East Africa's largest oil reserves, but the majority is exported, while it imports the refined product needed for fuel. According to the International Energy Agency, South Sudan generates 96% of its electricity from oil. The power rationing comes on top of the intermittent cuts that have been ongoing since May last year due to maintenance operations, major media reports. On Wednesday, Juba's main electricity distributor, Jedco, said parts of the city would start experiencing daily power cuts on a rotational basis, according to major media. Jedco stated that due to the ongoing Iran-US conflict, it must proactively manage its available energy reserves and is prioritising a strategic rationing of power. The power company has since shared a rationing schedule of affected areas, major media reports.
Regional adaptation measures are emerging. Zimbabwe has said it will increase the amount of ethanol it uses in its petrol, from 5% to 20%. Major media reports that Zimbabwe has announced plans to scrap some taxes on fuel imports to reduce fuel prices, which have risen 40% in less than a month. In Ethiopia, authorities have ordered fuel supply companies to prioritise security institutions, major government projects, key industries and the manufacture of essential goods. The Ethiopian Oil and Energy Authority's measures announced last week saw petrol stations prioritising public transport, as well as restrictions to conserve fuel, according to major media.
Bangladesh sharply raised jet fuel prices by nearly 80%, according to research from seven sources. This spike reflects broader Asian impacts as countries grapple with disrupted supply chains.
Several critical unknowns remain. The specific measures Iran is taking to enforce control over the Strait of Hormuz, and whether any naval or military actions are ongoing, have not been detailed. The duration of electricity and fuel restrictions in affected African and Asian countries, and their contingency plans if shortages worsen, are unclear. The current status of negotiations or diplomatic efforts to resolve the Strait of Hormuz closure and restore normal traffic is not publicly known. How other major economies like the U.S., Europe, and India are responding to the energy crisis, and whether they are implementing similar conservation measures, has not been widely reported. The verified death toll from the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and Iran's retaliatory strikes, including civilian and military casualties, has not been confirmed.
Amid the regional turmoil, mass civil protests against the Iranian regime resulted in what may have been 30,000 deaths as per data by local authorities.