Donald Trump stated that the US and Iran are launching a joint venture in the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a way to secure the waterway. He also claimed that Iran has agreed to a two-week ceasefire and will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while a 10-point peace plan is considered by both sides. This announcement follows weeks of heightened tensions in the region, though the exact terms of the ceasefire and peace plan remain unclear.
Iran has proposed a toll system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week period, with an unnamed Middle East official indicating tolls could reach up to $1 million per vessel. Under the plan, ships must inform intermediary companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the ship's cargo, destination, and ultimate owner. If approved, IRGC boats will provide an escort into and out of the Strait of Hormuz, adding a layer of security and control over maritime traffic.
Conflicting reports have emerged regarding the financial scale of Iran's proposed tolls. While the unnamed Middle East official cited tolls of up to $1 million, multiple reports mention a sum of $2 million per vessel as the average rate for a single oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This disagreement affects understanding of the potential revenue, with analysts suggesting Iran could make as much as $500 billion in five years from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's comprehensive peace plan, reported by its Tasnim news agency, includes demands that the US accept Tehran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognize its right to uranium enrichment, lift all sanctions, pay compensation, and withdraw all troops from the region. These points form a ten-point framework that could reshape regional dynamics if implemented.
Trump has made contradictory statements on uranium enrichment and nuclear site monitoring, vowing that Iran will not be able to enrich uranium and that the US will coordinate with Tehran to extract 'nuclear dust' buried deep underground. He also claimed that the nuclear site has been watched closely since it was bombed.
According to the White House, the safety of the uranium was confirmed before an eleventh-hour deal was struck, suggesting progress in securing nuclear materials. This confirmation came as part of broader discussions on tariff and sanctions relief, which Trump described as being negotiated within the peace plan.
Trump offered an optimistic assessment of the negotiations, asserting that tariff and sanctions relief are being discussed as part of a peace plan with many points already agreed. He described the deal as a total and complete victory.
According to Axios, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has instructed his negotiators to move towards a deal, signaling a potential shift in Tehran's stance. However, there is no independent confirmation of this directive.
The context of shipping disruptions underscores the urgency of these developments, with the Swedish tanker company Stena Bulk having several ships trapped in the Persian Gulf for six weeks.
Uncertainties persist about the exact terms of the two-week ceasefire and peace plan, including specific demands and implementation mechanisms. Additionally, questions remain regarding which nuclear site Trump referenced as being watched since it was bombed, and how many points in the peace plan have been fully negotiated between the US and Iran.
Further questions arise about the current status of the negotiations and whether a deal has been finalized, given conflicting statements from Trump and other sources. The lack of clear evidence for Iran's Supreme Leader's directive to negotiators adds to the ambiguity.