The krona's strength is attributed to several factors. According to Handelsbanken currency strategist Tommy von Brömsen, these include a weakening US dollar, strong Swedish economic recovery, low government debt, and successful inflation control. SEB currency strategist Amanda Sundström cited an expected upswing in the Swedish economy, stable public finances, increased interest in the defence industry, ECB rate cuts, and speculative factors.
SEB senior economist Robert Bergqvist noted that the krona's strengthening is unusual because smaller currencies typically suffer in turbulent times. According to SEB, Bergqvist described that market participants usually move away from smaller currencies in uncertain times, but the pattern is now opposite for the krona relative to the dollar. Von Brömsen also said the krona has been undervalued for a long time.
Once the krona strengthens, it attracts investors who follow the trend and don't want to 'miss the train.'
7 billion in April 2026. 855%. The Riksbank cut the policy rate three times in 2025 to support economic recovery, according to its Executive Board.
CPIF inflation in December 2025 was close to 2%, according to the Riksbank. Sweden has one of the lowest government debts within the OECD, according to the OECD. Swedish adults have among the highest skill levels within the OECD, according to the OECD.
Yes, what we are seeing is very unusual – and, indeed, market participants usually seek to move away from smaller currencies, such as the krona, in turbulent and uncertain times. Larger currencies, such as the US dollar, are considered safer. But right now, the pattern is essentially the opposite regarding the krona in relation to the dollar.
The OECD also reports that the Swedish banking sector is stable and well-capitalized. According to SEB, Bergqvist described that a stronger krona makes imports cheaper, lowers inflationary pressure, and benefits consumers, but hurts export companies. Von Brömsen told SVT that a stronger krona can lead to lower prices in Swedish stores, such as imported tomatoes from Spain.
He also described the krona's flexibility as a shock absorber in the economy. Minor observations include that the krona's weakness on Friday evenings may be due to traders' wariness of weekend news from the US, according to Danske Bank. Unknowns include the exact time period for the conflicting performance claims, the current exchange rate against the dollar and euro, the Riksbank's latest policy rate, the 2026 forecast for the krona, and the specific impact on export companies.
When the krona's value strengthens, imports to Sweden become cheaper, creating lower inflationary pressure. This is welcome and good for Swedish consumers as, for example, imported goods become more affordable. It can also open the door for the Riksbank to lower the interest rate again. This is good for our mortgage rates. On the other hand, the krona's strength creates headwinds for our export industry as companies receive fewer kronor for each product sold. This is particularly concerning in a situation with ongoing trade wars and the risk of a declining global economy. In other words, there are both winners and losers when the krona strengthens.