The Swedish Security Service currently sees no specific threat against the Swedish election, and no concrete threats linked to the election have been seen so far, according to the agency. However, lone actors are identified as the biggest threat against elected officials and central government leadership, the service says. Incidents, which could be serious, are not ruled out by authorities.
Lone actors can be difficult to detect and can quickly move from words to action, with mental illness complicating the threat further, security experts note. Domestic violent extremists tend to become more active during election years and target ideological opponents more, according to security assessments. The autumn election means extra pressure on both the Swedish Security Service and the police, officials acknowledge.
The police have already seen increased activity and have preparations for public order disturbances, police sources indicate. The number of expressions of opinion, threats, and hate against elected officials increases during an election year, police data shows. During the previous election year 2022, extreme situations arose when several cities were affected by the so-called Easter riots.
After the Easter riots, the police were criticized for not being sufficiently prepared, despite intelligence about the risk of violence. Since then, the police have trained more in special police tactics used to maintain order and safety in connection with gatherings. At regional operational centers, everything from general assemblies to crimes against critical societal functions is monitored, allowing the police to assess and act on information much earlier.
Interest from foreign powers in disrupting the election is assessed as limited by security agencies. Foreign powers do not particularly prioritize influencing the Swedish election, according to intelligence assessments. There are issues such as Ukraine support, NATO, and migration that Russia could potentially amplify and exploit, security analysts say.
Foreign powers are opportunists; if they get an opportunity, they might act, experts warn. The Swedish Security Service has specific protective measures beyond bodyguards, including various technical solutions, the agency reports.