According to Sweden's Migration Minister Johan Forssell, there are no signs of an imminent surge of refugees fleeing conflict in the Middle East to Europe. However, he noted that past experiences show that things can change very quickly regarding refugee flows. 'We do not see any such signs today.
But we are following this very closely, things can change with very short notice,' Forssell said. The UN's migration agency, the IOM, has warned of a displacement risk after the US and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend, sparking Iranian retaliation and a spiraling regional conflict. More than 19 million people are already displaced internally in the region due to conflict, violence, and disasters, making it vulnerable to further instability.
The war in Iran has already claimed over 1,000 human lives, with at least 1,114 people, including 183 children, having died in attacks on Iran, according to the American human rights organization HRANA. No large waves of refugees have been reported so far from the conflict in Iran. Currently, people in major cities are evacuating to rural areas to avoid potential targets like bases or headquarters.
We cannot have what we had ten years ago. We cannot have another refugee crisis.
Iran is a large country, which facilitates internal movements. TV4 Nyheterna's Middle East commentator Terese Cristiansson stated, 'So far, it is more about people in major cities evacuating to the countryside. The information we receive is that they are trying to stay away from potential targets such as bases, headquarters, or similar.
Iran is a large country which facilitates movements within the country. ' Cristiansson added, 'The people who live near the borders will probably cross there. Iranian Kurds to the Kurdish area in Iraq, Azeris to Azerbaijan and so on.
But the largest group would probably choose to flee towards Turkey. ' It remains unknown how many refugees might flee Iran if the conflict escalates or prolongs, and what the current capacity of neighboring countries like Turkey is to handle a large influx. Migration Minister Johan Forssell does not have the impression that large refugee flows are heading to Sweden right now.
We are still struggling with many of the challenges and problems that we saw back in 2015.
He emphasized, 'We cannot have what we had ten years ago. ' Forssell said Europe has moved on from the chaos of its migration system ten years ago and is now more prepared to deal with a possible uptick in people seeking refuge. The EU Pact on Migration, agreed in 2023 and due to be implemented in June, means the bloc is better equipped for future migration challenges.
The pact establishes a system of mandatory solidarity where southern states can relocate asylum seekers or receive financial and operational support, and includes a crisis mechanism for sudden and massive arrivals of refugees. It is unclear what specific measures the EU will take under the new pact if a refugee surge occurs. ' Meanwhile, Sweden is leading a push to facilitate the expulsion of refugees convicted of serious sexual crimes from EU states by changing how the 1951 Refugee Convention is applied.
Sweden wants new guidelines on applying the 1951 Refugee Convention to allow a small number of refugees who have committed serious crimes to be returned to their home countries, according to a Swedish non-paper presented to EU ministers. ' A Swedish Court of Appeal recently blocked the return of an individual sentenced to four years in prison for rape, which Migration Minister Forssell described as outrageous. The plan to expel refugees convicted of crimes must take into consideration the legal principle of non-refoulement, Forssell noted.
How Sweden's initiative will be implemented without violating non-refoulement principles remains an open question.