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Sweden and Finland confront nuclear deterrence debate amid Russian threats

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Sweden and Finland confront nuclear deterrence debate amid Russian threats
Key Points
  • Sweden is discussing developing nuclear weapons, requiring societal interventions, amid a worsened security situation.
  • Finland is moving to amend its nuclear legislation to allow nuclear weapons for NATO participation, with Russia issuing warnings.
  • Russia has threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO, with existing deployments reported.

Sweden is discussing the possibility of developing its own nuclear weapons due to a worsened security situation, according to major media reports. Developing nuclear weapons in Sweden would require enormous interventions in society, the same sources indicate. What was completely excluded has become discussable, referring to topics like nuclear weapons, major media reports note, signaling a significant shift in public discourse.

Finland said this week it will decide whether to apply for NATO membership within weeks, according to research sources. The Finnish government announced on March 5 a proposal to repeal legislation outlawing the transport of nuclear explosives into or through Finnish territory, research sources confirm. The Finnish government announced it intends to amend its 1987 Nuclear Energy Act to allow nuclear weapons if connected to military defence, according to research sources. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen said the amendment was necessary to enable full participation in NATO nuclear planning and deterrence. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the move did not reflect any acute or immediate security threat but was about participating in NATO's nuclear planning. The proposal does not mean Finland would permanently host nuclear arms; any deployment would require separate approvals, research sources clarify.

Dmitry Medvedev warned that if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in Kaliningrad. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said President Putin has issued an order on reinforcing Russia's western flank due to NATO's growing military potential. Lithuania said Russia had deployed nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad long before the war in Ukraine. Russia warned that Finland's plan to lift a ban on hosting nuclear weapons would be treated as a direct threat and prompt a military response, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Russia said in 2018 it had deployed Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, which can carry nuclear warheads, research sources report.

Eroding trust in US security commitments has contributed to a narrative calling for a stronger European nuclear deterrent independent of the United States, according to research sources. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a new concept of 'forward deterrence' with Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, and Poland on board, research sources indicate. Sweden has signalled that its peacetime ban on foreign troops and nuclear weapons could be reconsidered if the strategic situation changes, research sources note. The New START Treaty between the United States and Russia expired in February, research sources confirm.

The Tekniska museet has a new exhibition concept called 'talbar' for discussing large topics in a relaxed manner, according to major media reports. The 'talbar' is located in the Salong Energi exhibition about Ågestaverket, major media reports indicate. The Salong Energi exhibition was completed three years ago when the nuclear power issue became politically relevant again, major media reports note. The Tekniska museet has previously held 'talbar' events on AI and forests, according to major media reports.

Cecilia Gustavsson and others developed an advanced course on verification of nuclear test explosions at Uppsala University in collaboration with FOI, first given in 2022, according to research sources. The course on verification of nuclear test explosions addresses techniques used by CTBTO, with emphasis on radioxenon acquisition and detection, research sources indicate. FOI has about twenty people engaged in nuclear weapons issues, divided into threat assessment and technical verification areas, research sources report. FOI's work includes building prototypes for measuring radioactivity, especially noble gases, to detect nuclear explosions, according to research sources. FOI's activities are financed by the Swedish Ministry of Defence, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, CTBTO, and SSM, research sources confirm.

Carl Bernroth presented research on simulating irradiation and depletion of weapons grade plutonium as MOX-fuel in a light-water reactor to render it unattractive for weapons manufacture, according to research sources.

An 'End Nuclear Weapons' exhibition will be displayed at Stockholm University Library in November, with a panel discussion on November 19, research sources indicate. The exhibition aims to raise awareness about nuclear weapons, share fact-based insights, highlight the TPNW, and invite reflection on disarmament, according to research sources.

Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia, the longest of any EU or NATO member state, research sources report.

Whether Sweden will actually proceed with developing its own nuclear weapons or if the discussion remains theoretical is unclear. The extent of public support in Sweden and Finland for hosting or developing nuclear weapons has not been confirmed. The effectiveness and progress of the 'forward deterrence' concept proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron is uncertain.

The current status of Russia's nuclear weapons deployment in Kaliningrad and whether recent threats have led to new deployments is not publicly verified. The specific timeline and details of Finland's proposed amendment to its Nuclear Energy Act regarding nuclear weapons are still being determined.

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Sweden and Finland confront nuclear deterrence debate amid Russian threats | Reed News