A Reuters analysis identified at least four occasions where experts believe investors seemingly possessed foreknowledge of Trump administration decisions concerning tariffs, Venezuela, and Iran. Well-timed trades preceding significant policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump may have generated millions for unidentified investors. A surge in betting on global oil markets just before President Trump announced a temporary halt to his airstrikes on Iran has sparked claims of insider trading.
At least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were suddenly sold between 6:49 a.m. and 6:51 a.m., raising suspicions that word of Trump's announcement was leaked in advance. 27 seconds before 6:50 a.m. on Monday morning, oil futures worth $580 million were sold on the New York Stock Exchange. The trading volume on Monday morning was almost ten times larger than an average day.
Traders in the U.S. earned up to five billion kronor (approximately $500 million) on a stock market deal 15 minutes before Donald Trump's statement on Monday that talks were ongoing with Iran. Experts suspect this was an illegal insider deal.
International markets, including Germany’s DAX Index Futures and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index Futures, also saw an unusual uptick in trades.
Prediction market platforms are criticized for allowing people to bet on the U.S. attack on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On Polymarket, $529 million was bet on the contract 'The United States strikes Iran by...?' Before the attacks, 'death markets' emerged around whether Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be ousted, potentially through assassination, which happened on Feb. 28.
Bubblemaps identified six suspicious bettors who won $1.2 million, with accounts funded in the last 24 hours before the conflict and betting specifically on February 28. One account titled 'Magamyman' earned $515,000 by betting 71 minutes before the information was made public, according to Bubblemaps.
Mike Levin notes that Donald Trump Jr. sits on the advisory board of Polymarket and his company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year.
Traders on online prediction markets wagered over $1 billion on aspects of the conflict as the U.S. and Israel prepared for and launched strikes against Iran. According to a Reuters review of Polymarket, $529 million was placed on a series of contracts tied to the timing of attacks on Iran, while another $150 million was wagered on contracts tied to the removal of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. One week after the attacks began, traders are still betting millions of dollars on Iran-related questions such as the next supreme leader, the Strait of Hormuz closure, U.S. ground troops entering Iran, and which countries Iran will strike.
A White House spokesman said 'the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decision-making is the best interest of the American people.'
One user named 'Magamyman' made $553,000 from Iran bets placed on the eve of war, including a $32,000 wager early morning on Feb. 28 that correctly predicted strikes that day when Polymarket odds said there was only a 17% chance. One trader made more than $553,000 from a wager that Khamenei would be out of power shortly before he was killed in the strikes on Feb. 28.
Federal regulations already prohibit futures contracts based on assassinations, war, or terrorism. The trades that paid out upon Khamenei's death occurred on the largely unregulated international version of Polymarket, which some Americans still access through virtual private networks. The Trump administration approved a US version of Polymarket last year, but it isn't fully operational yet.
Though the identities of these traders are not public, Democratic lawmakers condemned the war profiteering, speculating about possible insider trading by people in President Donald Trump's orbit and calling for a congressional inquiry. The Iran trades sparked broader outrage: lawmakers expressed alarm about lack of regulation, traders vented about unclear market rules, government watchdogs worried about possible corruption, and academics wondered about the morality of wagering on people's lives.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Rep. Greg Casar of Texas introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions, or BETS OFF, Act, which would prohibit wagers on future events including military operations, government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and outcomes that a single person knows or controls. Murphy's office said the bill also would strengthen enforcement against offshore platforms by targeting payment systems and imposing criminal penalties on people in the U.S. who promote, manage, own, or supervise illegal betting businesses.
The push is part of a broader congressional effort to rein in prediction markets after well-timed bets before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the U.S. operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro raised questions about whether people with access to nonpublic information could profit. Lawmakers framed the measures as a response to suspected manipulation and concerns that markets can be distorted when a decision-maker controls the outcome. The legislative push follows a surge in trading around violent geopolitical events that critics say underscores both ethical risks and threats to market integrity.
In January, an anonymous Polymarket trader who began with a $96 wager built positions worth about $34,000 and ultimately made roughly $410,000 by betting that Maduro would be removed from power in a U.S. military operation. That episode prompted renewed calls in Washington for tighter oversight of prediction markets and potential insider trading rules.
A Kalshi market on whether Khamenei would be 'out' reached $54 million in trading before it was suspended. Kalshi was later sued over its handling of payouts tied to that market.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said government ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic information and called any implication of such activity 'baseless and irresponsible.' A CFTC spokesperson said the agency communicates with exchanges over trades that raise red flags and conducts its own surveillance. A White House spokesman stated that the White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.
Iran denied any talks had taken place, branding them 'fake news.'