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Stubb Warns of Transatlantic Rift as Ukraine War Enters New Phase

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Stubb Warns of Transatlantic Rift as Ukraine War Enters New Phase
Key Points
  • President Alexander Stubb warns of a growing rift between Europe and the United States, with transatlantic relations changed but not broken.
  • The Ukraine war has entered a new phase defined by drone warfare and attrition, with Ukraine in a stronger battlefield position and Russia suffering heavy losses.
  • Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are stalled, possibly due to the Iran war diverting attention, and the conflict is likely to continue this year.

Finland's international prominence in European security contexts was frequently highlighted in 2024, according to official sources. President Alexander Stubb was mentioned approximately 123,000 times in international media in 2025, according to the publication 'Finland genom andras ögon', which annually provides an updated overview of how Finland is viewed around the world. The Finnish person mentioned second most often in international media is Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, official sources indicate.

According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described a rift that has grown between Europe and the United States. He further noted that the global West is divided, and while transatlantic relations haven't broken, they have changed.

A rift has grown between Europe and the United States.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

U.S. President Donald Trump has complained that NATO countries have not wanted to send troops or equipment to secure traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed, according to multiple reports. In a social media post, Trump stated that the U.S. no longer needs or desires assistance from NATO countries, Japan, Australia, or South Korea, and was told allies don't want to get involved in the Iran war.

The Albanese government rebuffed Trump's claim, saying there hadn't been a formal request to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz. In Europe, concern is growing that U.S. President Donald Trump's support for Ukraine will decrease due to the new war in the Middle East, according to official sources.

The global West is divided, and while transatlantic relations haven't broken, they have changed.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described being more pessimistic now compared to a year ago, feeling that U.S. patience with Russia and Putin is running out.

According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described three things that have changed regarding Ukraine compared to last year: Europe is now part of Ukraine's peace negotiations, talks on U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine have progressed, and Ukraine is in a better position on the battlefield. Stubb stated that Ukraine is now in a stronger position than at any point since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Trump called NATO's actions a 'very stupid mistake' and said allies agree with the US but don't want to help.

Donald Trump, President of the United States

British Defense Minister John Healey assessed that Russian troop losses in Ukraine are so large they are hard to replace. Stubb elaborated that since December, Ukraine has killed somewhere around 35,000 Russian soldiers per month. He added that Russia is not able to recruit enough soldiers to compensate for those 35,000 monthly losses. Stubb noted the casualty ratio right now is one Ukrainian soldier to five Russian soldiers. He also stated that in 2025, Russia gained less than one percentage point of territory with 400,000 casualties, and the rate at which Russia is going now is roughly 150 to 157 casualties per square kilometer.

Stubb stated that the war has entered a new phase shaped by attrition, drones and battlefield calculations. He noted that ninety-five percent of the losses are through drones. He also observed that in March, there were more drones and missiles flying from Ukraine to Russia than from Russia to Ukraine.

I am more pessimistic now compared to a year ago, feeling that US patience with Russia and Putin is running out.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Stubb stated that Ukraine has hit Russia's oil export capacity, dealing a serious blow to the financing of its war machine. He also confirmed that Ukraine has hit factories that produce Iskander missiles.

According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described Ukraine's presence in the Gulf region with three military groups and negotiators to help U.S. allies strengthen air defense against modern drones and missiles, hoping this leads to goodwill from Americans. He also noted that Russia provides intelligence to Iran, which is used to kill American soldiers and Gulf infrastructure, and Ukraine is there to help Gulf states prevent this from escalating. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine's contribution to Middle East and Gulf security is a real contribution to global security, important for energy security and living costs in Europe.

Three things have changed regarding Ukraine compared to last year: Europe is now part of Ukraine's peace negotiations, talks on US security guarantees for Ukraine have progressed, and Ukraine is in a better position on the battlefield.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Gulf at the end of March, signing 10-year defense agreements with the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, involving fuel supply and air defense technology exchange, according to multiple reports. The exact terms and implementation status of these agreements remain unclear.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said there is no progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia right now. According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described stalled negotiations as possibly due to the Iran war diverting attention from Ukraine. Official sources confirm that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have been put on ice due to the war in the Middle East.

Ukraine is now in the Gulf region with three military groups and negotiators to help US allies strengthen air defense against modern drones and missiles, hoping this leads to goodwill from Americans.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

According to Ilta-Sanomat, Alexander Stubb described Trump as having two instruments, stick and carrot, and nothing in between, referring to Ukraine peace negotiations and how Trump talks to Russia. Journalist Latika M Bourke suggested to Stubb that Europe should use the Middle East crisis as a bargaining chip with Trump to get U.S. action on Ukraine, according to multiple reports. Stubb also stated that negotiating with Trump about European military support in the Middle East to secure the important Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for him helping Ukraine reach a peace agreement with Russia, could be an alternative. Whether Stubb actually followed up on this suggestion is unknown.

President Alexander Stubb and other European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a two-week ceasefire in Iran, calling for a diplomatic solution and free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the U.S. reached a ceasefire with Pakistan's mediation, and peace negotiations are set to continue in Pakistan later in the week, according to multiple reports. The current status and progress of these negotiations are not fully detailed.

Russia provides intelligence to Iran, which is used to kill American soldiers and Gulf infrastructure, and Ukraine is there to help Gulf states prevent this from escalating.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Trump signed a one-month sanction waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil from tankers unable to dock, which concerned European leaders including Zelensky, according to multiple reports. Stubb stated that the Russian economy was doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back but is now bouncing back.

President Alexander Stubb hosted a JEF summit in Helsinki with leaders from Britain, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Iceland, Netherlands, and remotely from Ukraine and Canada, according to multiple reports. JEF is a British-led alliance focused on Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea, with flexible decision-making, and all member states are also NATO countries, the reports indicate. President Alexander Stubb is making a working visit to Canada on April 14-15, meeting Governor General Mary Simon and Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss bilateral relations, Arctic issues, and transatlantic relations. He will also attend the Bilderberg meeting in Washington, D.C., on April 9-12, 2026, and participate in a Brookings Institution event on world order rebalancing.

Trump has two instruments, stick and carrot, and nothing in between, referring to Ukraine peace negotiations and how Trump talks to Russia.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he has 'real chemistry' with leaders from France, Britain, Finland, Denmark, and Poland, and has a close relationship with Stubb. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will visit Finland on April 16-17, 2026, meeting Stubb, Prime Minister Orpo, and Speaker Halla-aho, according to multiple reports. Stubb stated that he, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, and Zelensky had a trilateral call discussing support for Ukraine and Zelensky's trip to the Gulf. The specific details and outcomes of this call have not been disclosed.

The extent to which U.S. President Donald Trump's support for Ukraine has actually decreased due to the war in the Middle East, as feared in Europe, remains uncertain. Stubb stated that the most likely scenario for this year is that the war will continue.

Stalled negotiations may be due to the Iran war diverting attention from Ukraine.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Ukraine's contribution to Middle East and Gulf security is a real contribution to global security, important for energy security and living costs in Europe.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

Your idea was 'really good' and I might use it, can I have your phone number?

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

The US no longer needs or desires assistance from NATO countries, Japan, Australia, or South Korea, and was told allies don't want to get involved in the Iran war.

Donald Trump, President of the United States

The Russian economy was doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back but is now bouncing back.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

I have 'real chemistry' with leaders from France, Britain, Finland, Denmark, and Poland, and have a close relationship with Stubb.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

I, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, and Zelensky had a trilateral call discussing support for Ukraine and Zelensky's trip to the Gulf.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Ukraine is now in a stronger position than at any point since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

The war has entered a new phase shaped by attrition, drones and battlefield calculations.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Since December, Ukraine has killed somewhere around 35,000 Russian soldiers per month.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Russia is not able to recruit enough soldiers to compensate for those 35,000 monthly losses.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Ninety-five percent of the losses are through drones.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

The casualty ratio right now is one Ukrainian soldier to five Russian soldiers.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

In 2025, Russia gained less than one percentage point of territory with 400,000 casualties.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

The rate at which Russia is going now is roughly 150 to 157 casualties per square kilometer.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

The most likely scenario for this year is that the war will continue.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

In March, there were more drones and missiles flying from Ukraine to Russia than from Russia to Ukraine.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Ukraine has hit Russia's oil export capacity, dealing a serious blow to the financing of its war machine.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Ukraine has hit factories that produce Iskander missiles.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

Negotiating with Trump about European military support in the Middle East to secure the important Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for him helping Ukraine reach a peace agreement with Russia, could be an alternative.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland

I think it's a really good idea to negotiate with Trump about European military support in the Middle East in exchange for him helping Ukraine reach a peace agreement with Russia.

Alexander Stubb, President of Finland
Corroborated
Ilta-SanomatSVT NyheterDaily Mail - NewsExpressenwww.kyivpost.com+2
7 publications · 18 sources · 1 official
1 contradictions found
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