Donald Trump has repeatedly mocked and insulted Keir Starmer, including calling him 'no Winston Churchill' and 'disappointing'. Trump also posted a clip from a UK version of 'Saturday Night Live' mocking Starmer as a coward. The prime minister refused to allow the US to use British bases for offensive airstrikes on Iran, a decision that has set the stage for significant UK-US tensions. Starmer has suggested that Trump's insults are a pressure tactic to influence him.
The Iran conflict has caused economic fallout, including rising oil prices, higher mortgage rates, and stock market volatility. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran due to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, affecting oil and gas prices globally. Qatar's energy minister warned the war could 'bring down the economies of the world' and push oil prices to $150 a barrel, highlighting severe regional impacts.
Keir Starmer assured MPs that the government remembered the 'mistakes of Iraq' and would always operate on a 'lawful basis' and with a 'viable thought-through plan' to the crisis erupting in the Middle East.
Policy divergence between the UK and US extends to ceasefire negotiations. The UK wants Lebanon included in any Middle East ceasefire agreement, while the US says there was a misunderstanding and Lebanon is not included. US Vice President JD Vance clarified that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire, stating there was a 'misunderstanding'. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated the UK took a different view from the US on the Iran conflict, avoiding offensive operations and emphasizing diplomatic approaches.
Keir Starmer has issued direct warnings to Israel, stating 'That shouldn't be happening. That should stop' regarding bombing in Lebanon. He has emphasized the government's focus on the cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by the Iran conflict, linking it to domestic economic pressures. Starmer compared the economic impact of the Iran war to that of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, expressing frustration over energy bills.
Flawed advice does not make the unlawful use of force lawful.
Political reactions in the UK have been sharply critical of Starmer's handling of US relations. Liz Truss accused Keir Starmer of 'batting for the other side' in the Iran war, claiming Labour has an 'islamist' voter base influencing his decisions. Reform UK MP Suella Braverman accused Starmer of 'killing the special relationship' with the US over his handling of the conflict. These attacks reflect broader Conservative and Reform UK efforts to undermine Starmer's foreign policy credibility.
Starmer has framed his resistance as principled and used it to attack political opponents. He argued that Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage made the 'wrong call' on the war, showing they are unfit to run the country. His personal approval rating improved when voters were reminded of his stance against Trump in the Iran war, according to a JL Partners survey, indicating political benefits.
Military commanders on the ground will not thank the government if any action they take is later judged to have been in breach of international law.
Militarily, the UK has been bolstering its presence in the Middle East since January, according to a Ministry of Defence spokesman. According to Calvin Bailey, a former wing commander, Starmer’s approach is following guidance closely – both in his initial decision to deny the US permission to conduct strikes aimed at regime change from British bases including Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford, citing international law. This operational guidance is part of a broader strategic shift in UK military posture.
Calvin Bailey, a former wing commander with 24 years of service, keeps his Iraq medal safe in a drawer in his home; the medal features a clasp given to personnel who were part of the very first wave of flights to leave British bases to invade Iraq in March 2003. He spoke at a meeting between Labour MPs and the prime minister on Monday evening and has shared a manual called 'The Good Operation' with many colleagues. 'The Good Operation' is a handbook for those involved in operational policy and its implementation, aimed primarily at MOD decision-makers, designed to prompt its readers to ask the right questions as they plan for and execute a military operation, drawing in particular on the lessons of the 2016 Iraq inquiry (Chilcot) report.
I think we should have backed America from the very beginning.
Tony Blair said Keir Starmer should have supported US strikes on Iran from the start. Blair recently joined the executive board of Donald Trump’s controversial Board of Peace. A spokeswoman for Tony Blair said his comments had been made at a private event and were not intended to be publicised.
Media and public reaction has been mixed, with Starmer's resistance to Trump improving his standing with Labour MPs and in some polls, narrowing Reform's lead. The Mail on Sunday calls the criticism a stinging blow to a 'flailing' Prime Minister. MPs called for King Charles’ planned US visit to meet Donald Trump to be called off.
If they are your ally and an indispensable cornerstone for your security... you had better show up when they want you to.
Diplomatically, Keir Starmer and Donald Trump discussed the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz in a 20-minute call. Trump announced a five-day ceasefire in the Iran conflict, though Iran has not responded or indicated if the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
The implications of Starmer's decisions extend to legal and strategic realms. The full details and implications of Tony Blair's role on Trump's Board of Peace are not yet public, adding to uncertainties. The exact impact of the Iran conflict on UK military presence in the Middle East beyond the reported bolstering since January also remains to be seen, shaping future UK military strategy.
The relationship with America matters, and it 'matters particularly today.'