The capacity increase, which aligns with Spain's 5.9% passenger growth last year, was announced by Javier Gandara, president of the Spanish Airlines Association (ALA), during a press conference. Gandara expressed optimism about the outlook, stating that the 6% increase reflects confidence that many people will want to visit Spain this summer, partly due to traffic diverted from conflict zones. However, he also acknowledged a much more uncertain situation this year, with developments changing rapidly.
The conflict has triggered a severe oil supply crisis. According to the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively blocked by Iran, causing the largest supply disruption in history. Iran launched retaliatory strikes within four hours of the initial attacks, hitting Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack and later declared force majeure on all exports after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Oil production in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE dropped by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, and by at least 10 million by March 12. Iranian strikes on desalination plants caused a humanitarian crisis in Kuwait and Qatar, and the war has caused a systemic collapse of the Gulf Cooperation Council economic model, according to research from seven sources.
The outlook is good.
Brent crude oil prices have surged dramatically. Research from seven sources indicates that Brent crude rose to $106 per barrel as of March 9, 2026, up more than 40% from $72 on February 27. It surged past $120 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closure on March 4, though later reports show prices passed $100 on March 12 and reached $101 after comments by Mojtaba Khamenei. The discrepancy may reflect different reporting dates or intraday volatility, but the overall spike is severe. In response, the IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history—400 million barrels—on March 11, and the US agreed to release 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve.
Spanish airlines are relatively protected from the fuel supply chaos, as more than 80% of their jet fuel comes from domestic refineries rather than the Middle East. According to the ALA, only 11% of its crude oil is sourced from the Middle East. International airports serving Spain are not expected to change their fares, as 70% of summer fuel needs are secured through pre-conflict hedging agreements. However, Spanish low-cost carrier Volotea has introduced a temporary pricing policy linking ticket prices to fuel costs. Consumer advocacy group Facua called for an investigation into Volotea's policy, alleging potential breaches of consumer protection laws.
The 6% increase shows confidence that many people will want to visit Spain this summer, and part of that demand is traffic diverted from conflict zones and neighbouring areas.
Route expansions will be focused on coastal regions, including Alicante and Andalusia, with capacity increasing by 14% and 8%, respectively. Airports in popular cities such as Madrid and Barcelona will see an 8% increase in available seats. Iberia will offer 21,420,165 seats for summer 2026, the largest in its history, and will launch services to four new destinations: Toronto, Monterrey, Bucharest, and Tivat. Iberia Express will introduce 30,000 new seats on flights to the Canary Islands between October 2025 and January 2026.
In contrast, Ryanair will reduce its operations in Spain, cutting approximately one million seats for winter 2025-2026 due to Aena's price increases. Aena announced a 6.62% rise in airport charges starting from September 2026.
We are facing a much more uncertain situation this year, with developments changing by the minute.
Industry experts have warned that inflation, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could significantly affect demand. The exact current Brent crude oil price and its day-by-day evolution remain unclear, as do the practical effects of the war on Spanish airlines' fuel costs and ticket prices. The status of QatarEnergy's LNG production and exports after the force majeure declaration is also uncertain. It remains to be seen whether the capacity increases will materialize given the economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, and what the outcome of Facua's investigation into Volotea's pricing policy will be.