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Södermanland County to grow by 12,500 but disparities widen among municipalities

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Södermanland County to grow by 12,500 but disparities widen among municipalities
Key Points
  • Södermanland County is projected to grow by over 12,500 people by 2040, but with large disparities between municipalities.
  • Trosa is forecast to be Sweden's fastest-growing municipality percentage-wise at 20%, followed by Kungälv and Uppsala.
  • SCB's forecasts rely on estimates of births, deaths, and migration, projecting Sweden's population to increase by 420,000 by 2040.

According to SCB's population forecast, Södermanland County is expected to continue growing, but the differences between municipalities are large. The county is projected to increase by just over 12,500 inhabitants compared to 2024, with Eskilstuna growing weakly, while in Flen and Vingåker the development goes in the opposite direction. The exact projected population numbers for each municipality in Södermanland County have not been detailed in the forecast.

Trosa stands out as the municipality in the country projected to grow the most percentage-wise by 2040, with 20 percent, though what specific factors are driving this growth remains unclear. Kungälv is in second place with 17 percent growth, followed by Uppsala with 15 percent, while Strängnäs also gets a significant boost according to the forecast. SCB's forecasts are based on estimates of future births, mortality, and immigration/emigration to give an indication of how Sweden's population may change in the future.

According to the forecast, Sweden's population is expected to increase by 420,000 people by 2040. How the forecasts account for potential economic or policy changes that could affect migration patterns is not specified, and the reliability of these long-term projections given uncertainties in birth rates and migration trends is an open question.

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