The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces seized 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained roughly 473 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast during 2025. The gains amount to 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s territory, according to ISW and Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii. Al Jazeera analysis indicates that Russia controls 20 percent of Ukraine as of early 2025, though this figure may already include some 2025 gains. At its furthest advance in March 2022, Russia occupied roughly 27 percent of Ukrainian territory, but Ukraine reclaimed approximately 74,000 square kilometers by late November 2022, reducing Russian control to about 19 percent, according to ISW. The exact percentage of Ukrainian territory under Russian control as of the latest data remains unclear, as the 20 percent figure from Al Jazeera may be based on a different baseline than the 0.8 percent gain reported by ISW.
Russian forces employed a new operational template in 2025, according to ISW, involving battlefield air interdiction, tactical interdiction, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults. They also scaled production of fiber optic UAVs resistant to electronic warfare, increasing their range from 7 km to 20 km by summer 2025, and later to 50-60 km. Additionally, Russian forces introduced 'mothership' drones that extend the range of FPV drones, ISW reported. The number of fiber optic UAVs produced and deployed, as well as the operational impact of the 'mothership' drone program, have not been disclosed.
Ukrainian General Staff data indicates that Russian forces suffered 416,570 casualties throughout 2025, an average of 78 casualties per square kilometer seized. The average daily Russian rate of advance in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day, higher than 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024, according to ISW. Casualty figures for Ukrainian forces in 2025 have not been released.
The city of Pokrovsk was captured by Russia in early December 2025, according to Reuters. The capture of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, marked a significant tactical victory for Russian forces, potentially opening routes for further advances into Donetsk Oblast.
In parallel with developments on the battlefield, France and Poland planned increased defence cooperation covering nuclear deterrence, military satellites, joint drills, defence industry, and shared intelligence, according to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Macron said there may be deployments of French warplanes carrying nuclear warheads to Poland. Poland's military spending is expected to exceed 4.8% of GDP in 2026, according to Euronews. The specific intelligence-sharing agreements reached between France and Poland have not been detailed.
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