Russian interest in emigration has risen significantly, based on Google Trends search statistics reported by Vjorstka. Searches for 'how to leave Russia' or 'leave Russia' in January 2026 were made more than twice as often as in February 2025, according to the same outlet. Vjorstka notes that interest is approaching the levels seen in early 2023 after the partial mobilization. This phenomenon has been influenced by extensive internet outages, as assessed by The Moscow Times. Russia has had extensive mobile network outages since May 2025, with over 11,900 disruptions recorded in seven months, and by the end of the year, the total duration of outages was estimated at about 37,166 hours. The Kremlin has justified its interference in internet connections with war-related security measures. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on February 20 that obliges telecom operators to suspend services at the request of the Russian security service, and the regulation frees operators from delivery responsibility to customers during such suspensions. The exact number of Russians who have actually emigrated or are planning to emigrate remains unclear, contrasting with the search interest data.
Historical trends show that after early 2023, emigration interest steadily declined and reached its lowest point in February 2025, when it was only about one-third of the level three years earlier, Vjorstka reports. However, in the Yandex search engine, no similar trend has been seen; according to Yandex Wordstat, emigration-related searches have been growing steadily but are still far from record levels.
Russia is using cryptocurrency to pay actors conducting sabotage in Europe in order to prevent European intelligence services from tracking the payments.
Internet disruptions have been particularly severe in Moscow. Since early March, authorities have disrupted mobile network connections especially in the capital, with the network in the city center practically completely down, according to The Moscow Times. In other areas, only government-approved websites mostly work, multiple reports indicate.
On the battlefield, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw continued heavy fighting, with the Russian army notching some advances in Donetsk oblast, according to research from five sources. During this period, Russia’s army exerted pressure along all sections of the front, though with varying intensity. The greatest activity was observed in Kursk oblast, which remains partially controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and in the Donbas. Some days the number of battlefield clashes exceeded 200. The Russian Federation Armed Forces advanced in Donetsk oblast, seizing new territories, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces realized some gains near Kupiansk in Kharkiv oblast. In the last quarter of the year, Russian forces intensified their pressure in the direction of Kherson, making several attempts to establish a bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnipro river or one of its islands to transfer firepower there. Despite these efforts, the Russian Federation Armed Forces did not manage to achieve gains in Kherson. In total, in 2024, Russia has occupied more than 1,600 square miles of Ukrainian territory.
The Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for sabotage missions and that Poland discovered in 2023 a network of agents whom the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate recruited and whom Russia financed “to a high extent” with cryptocurrency.
Russian air attacks have become more frequent, with a record number of drones being used, research indicates. In the fall, Russia drastically increased the intensity of its air strikes on Ukraine: the country was targeted with more than 6,000 drones and missiles, twice as many as in the previous three months and three times more than were used in the fall of 2023. In October and November, Russia hit record numbers of drones launched against Ukraine; the targets included civilian structures.
Ukraine has responded with a sophisticated drone campaign of its own, according to research. Ukrainian drones targeted an ethanol plant in Russia’s Voronezh region, Russian news Telegram channels reported on Sunday. The attack sparked a fire at an unspecified industrial facility and injured one person, according to the region’s governor, Alexander Gusev. Russian forces thwarted an attempt at another cross-border incursion by Ukraine into south-western Russia, a local official reported Sunday. An armed group sought on Sunday to breach the border between Ukraine and Russia’s Bryansk region, its governor, Aleksandr Bogomaz, said but was beaten back. Bogomaz did not clarify whether Ukrainian soldiers carried out the alleged attack, but claimed on Sunday evening that the situation was stable and under control by the Russian military. Bryansk neighbours Kursk province, where Ukraine seized about 1,000 sq km of territory during a surprise assault in August. Responsibility for previous incursions into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions has been claimed by two murky groups: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion.
The Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for specific missions to minimize risk to the Kremlin.
North Korea upped its contributions to Russia’s war effort, including supplying weapons and sending troops to participate in the war against Ukraine, research from five sources confirms. North Korean forces were deployed in an operation to liberate a part of Kursk oblast controlled by the Ukrainian army, but the mission failed.
Russia renewed its campaign of energy terrorism, conducting massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities, and resumed attacks on the local energy infrastructure in the front-line region throughout the last quarter of the year, according to research. With Russia relentlessly targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, millions faced daily power outages of 4–6 hours.
The Kremlin has also leveraged cryptocurrency to circumvent Western sanctions.
Ukrainian search trends reflect the war’s harsh realities. Ukrainians' main searches for purchases in 2024 included eco flows, charging stations, and inverters, research shows. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi emerged as one of the year’s top-searched individuals in Ukraine. The Oscar-winning documentary 20 Days in Mariupol is the most-searched film in Ukraine. Ukrainians had concerning queries like “What is the blackout schedule?” “What is EW?” (electronic warfare), and “What is a KAB?” (a Russian glide bomb).
Russian forces have repeatedly targeted rescue workers in Ukraine, violating international humanitarian law. Last week, ACLED recorded three events where Russian forces targeted rescue workers in Ukraine. On 19 October, Russian guided aerial bombs destroyed a fire and rescue unit in Shostka, Sumy region, injuring five rescue workers and damaging six rescue vehicles. On the same day, a double-tap ballistic missile strike injured 18 civilians, including a rescuer, in Kryvyi Rih, with the strikes also damaging residential areas, administrative buildings, and 30 vehicles. Russian military bloggers claimed that the strike targeted a hotel housing electronic warfare specialists. On 21 October, a Russian drone dropped an explosive on an ambulance crew that had arrived at a patient’s home in Kherson city, injuring two of its members. International humanitarian law prohibits double-tap strikes affecting civilians, rescuers, and medical personnel. In addition to Ukraine, Russian forces previously resorted to double-tap strikes in Syria.
Poland is now in a “state of war” in the cyber domain.
The Kremlin has moved to expand its military manpower options. The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. The Russian government approved on October 13 a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense proposed stipulating that servicemembers of the Russian mobilization reserve can perform defensive tasks during armed conflicts, counter-terrorist operations, or deployments outside Russian territory. The law proposes that the Russian president can call up reservists for special training lasting up to two months. An explanatory note to the law states that the changes will allow Russia to deploy reservists during peacetime, expanding the current legislation that only allows Russia to deploy reservists during mobilization or wartime.
European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe. According to understandingwar.org, Polish National Security Bureau Chief Sławomir Cenckiewicz described Russia using cryptocurrency to pay actors conducting sabotage in Europe to prevent intelligence tracking. He also stated that the Kremlin increasingly relies on ad hoc local agents for sabotage missions and that Poland discovered in 2023 a network of agents recruited by the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate and financed extensively with cryptocurrency. According to the same source, Cenckiewicz added that the Kremlin relies on local agents for specific missions to minimize risk and has leveraged cryptocurrency to circumvent Western sanctions. He also described Poland as now in a state of war in the cyber domain. The Financial Times noted that Poland has accused Russia of orchestrating a recent hacking attempt to cut off the water supplies to Gdansk.
German Foreign Intelligence Service President Martin Jäger stated on October 13 that the frequency of Russian attacks on Europe is a new level of confrontation. He stated that Russia is trying to probe Europe’s borders, undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies, divide societies, and intimidate the population. Jäger stated that Europe must prepare for further Russian escalation and cannot assume that Russia will not launch a conventional attack against NATO until 2029.
Diplomatic tensions have flared over energy. Kyiv declined to renew the contract to transit Russia’s natural gas as of January 1, 2025. European countries have for the most part found alternative sources, but the termination of the contract caused some tensions with Slovakia, which has relied on Russian supplies. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday sought to clarify comments he had made during a summit earlier in the week, insisting that he was not favouring Russia over Ukraine.
Top leaders issued stark warnings. President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that Russia’s defence ministry was working on different ways to respond if the US and its Nato allies help Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range western missiles. Russia has been signalling to the US and its allies for weeks that if they give permission to Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with western-supplied missiles, then Moscow will consider it a major escalation. Putin said that it was too early to say exactly how Russia would react to such a move but that Moscow would have to respond accordingly and different options were being examined. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that cooperation within the “Ukraine plus Northern Europe” format is gaining speed with more steps that can increase pressure on Russia expected in the coming week. The five Nordic countries – Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland – are all now Nato countries and have all been staunch supporters of Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion. Zelenskyy said in his daily video address on Sunday that they understand it is necessary to create problems for the aggressor, so that Russia loses the opportunity to spoil the life of the world.