Western officials fear the law could lay groundwork for a future military move on NATO's eastern flank, potentially testing Article 5, according to major media reports. Intelligence assessments have warned that Russia could target another European country within the next few years, and some analysts believe Estonia could be a potential flashpoint. Several intelligence services, including British and Ukrainian, assess that Russia is preparing for an expanded war and future conflict with NATO.
However, analyst Jakob Hedenskog told Dagens Nyheter that Russia currently has difficulty conducting military intervention in another direction while the war in Ukraine continues, and a possible ceasefire could free up Russian forces for other deployments. The bill was backed by MPs shortly after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hinted Moscow might halt fighting in Ukraine if Kyiv ceded the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces still control roughly a fifth of the territory. Peskov's statement triggered fury among hardliners who accused him of being ready to 'surrender' territory, according to major media reports.
This is the first time the law explicitly includes this action as a response to legal measures against Russian citizens.
Alternative explanations suggest the law may be intended to protect Russia's shadow fleet, which exports raw materials and oil under false flags, as reported by Kommersant. The Swedish Coast Guard and other countries have boarded several ships in the Baltic Sea recently, and two Russian citizens, captains of the Sea Owl and Caffa, have been detained after Swedish boardings. According to Dagens Nyheter, analyst Jakob Hedenskog described that the law could allow Russia to intervene if shadow fleet ships are detained and captains imprisoned.
Exiled Russian researcher Dmitry Dubrovskiy told Dagens Nyheter that the law could be a preventive mechanism to protect the Russian elite from sanctions and prosecution. The law is criticized as 'aggressive lawlessness' from the Ukrainian side, according to Ukrainian officials. The law was co-authored by Deputy Defence Minister Anna Tsivileva, who is related to Putin, according to major media reports.
It could be a preventive mechanism to counteract the 'persecution' of those in the Russian elite who have been sanctioned.
It could be one purpose. That they open up for making, for example, rescues.
For Russia, it is always important to maintain a 'facade of legality' for its actions.