Russia has declared a 32-hour ceasefire during the Orthodox Easter weekend, starting at 16:00 on Saturday, and Ukraine has agreed to abide by the ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed the ceasefire, warning that Ukraine would respond strictly in kind to any ceasefire violations by Russia. The Kremlin described the Easter truce as a temporary humanitarian measure, though Putin announced the ceasefire after rejecting Ukraine's similar proposals.
Air raid sirens sounded in the Kharkiv region 38 minutes after the ceasefire began, and multiple ceasefire violations were recorded along the frontline after the truce began. Reuters reported that 14 homes in a residential building in Kramatorsk were damaged by Russian shelling shortly before the ceasefire was set to commence, while the BBC implied the Kramatorsk attack occurred after the ceasefire was to begin.
Russia would end hostilities if Ukraine hands over the remainder of Donbas it hasn't conquered.
Pre-ceasefire violence included Russian drone strikes that killed at least two people and wounded two others in Odesa overnight into Saturday. Russia launched 160 drones across Ukraine overnight, with 133 shot down or intercepted by the Ukrainian Air Force. Amid the truce, a prisoner swap on Saturday returned 175 Russian soldiers and 175 Ukrainian service members plus 7 civilians, according to multiple reports.
Diplomatically, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev travelled to the US to meet with Trump administration officials about potential negotiations, as the diplomatic process to end the war has stalled since the beginning of the Iran war. Ukraine's position is clear: it's impossible to give up territories Russia claims. According to TV4 Nyheterna, Kyrylo Budanov described that peace may be near and negotiations are progressing, but Joakim Paasikivi noted that no concrete agreement has been presented.
It's far from certain the ceasefire will hold, citing poor adherence to past truces.
Financially and strategically, Ukraine said Putin's war funds are running out after Russia said a peace deal was 'on the horizon', with Russia having spent around 15.5 trillion roubles (about £144 billion) since the full-scale invasion. Zelenskyy urged the US to reimpose Russian oil sanctions after the Iran ceasefire, as US sanctions waivers on Russian oil expire on Saturday.
Historically, previous ceasefire attempts have had little impact, with both sides accusing each other of violations. On the evening of 5 January 2023, Russian president Vladimir Putin instructed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to declare a 36-hour temporary ceasefire along the entire line of contact from midday on 6 January to midnight on 7 to 8 January 2023, but the truce proposal was rejected by the Ukrainian authorities, who called it a 'cynical trap'. Despite the ceasefire being declared, it had little effect as fighting persisted, leading to skepticism about the current truce's durability.
The biggest risk of ceasefire breaking is along the frontline where close combat occurs.
In early March, Ukraine agreed to an American proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, but almost two months later, Russia still refuses to follow suit on the American ceasefire proposal. Many observers conclude that Russia rather than Ukraine is the primary obstacle to peace.
The Wagner Group did not commit to the ceasefire and was not ordered to observe it, as it was not part of the Russian Defense Ministry, raising questions about its role and influence in the current conflict given its past non-compliance with ceasefires.
Peace may be near and negotiations are progressing.
Whether the current ceasefire will hold without significant violations remains unclear, given reports of early violations and expert skepticism. The exact terms and conditions of any potential peace deal being negotiated are also unknown, as sources mention progress but no concrete details. The extent of ceasefire violations along the frontline varies in detail and immediacy across reports, adding to the uncertainty.
No concrete agreement has been presented.